The Cavs just can't shoot anymore

The problem for Cleveland is pretty simple: the threes aren't falling. Is it fixable?

Good morning. Let's basketball.

There was a lot about the 2024-25 Cleveland Cavaliers that impressed. Perhaps nothing impressed more than the fact that Cleveland finished the season No. 1 in two-point shooting percentage and No. 2 in three-point shooting percentage. It's hard to outscore a team shooting that well, and few teams outscored them in the regular season as they racked up 64 wins. That scintillating three-point percentage – 38% – came on the league's 4th highest rate of three-point attempts, too.

As the Cavaliers have fallen far short of expectations that they, along with the Knicks, would run the East this season, the answer to the question of what's gone wrong is pretty simple: Cleveland can't shoot threes anymore.

Cleveland is still hitting its two-pointers at a high clip – not No. 1 in the league, but No. 8, taking midrange jumpers just a bit more frequently and shooting somewhat worse in the floater range, all of which could likely be attributed to Darius Garland going in and out of the line-up. The defense is also relatively stable: Cleveland finished No. 8 last season and is No. 10 so far in 2025-26. The Cavs' shot defense has slipped from No. 3 to No. 10 and they are fouling a lot more, but their turnover creation has jumped from league average to elite status. The defense isn't really performing much worse than last season.

On paper, it's really all about the threes. While maintaining one of the highest frequencies of three-pointers in the league, Cleveland has gone from No. 2 in three-point percentage to No. 28. From 38.3% to 33.9%. To put that in perspective, last season the Cavs' hot shooting from deep was worth an "extra" 2.9 points per game over a team that shot league average from deep. This season, the Cavs' cold shooting costs them 2.7 points per game compared to a team that shot league average (which was 36% in both seasons).

They shot so well last season that they basically started games with a 3-0 head start. They are shooting so poorly this season that they are basically starting games down 0-3. That's a massive swing. Lo and behold!, the Cavaliers' scoring margin has fallen by about 6.8 points per game. Nearly all of it is explained by the three-point shooting collapse.

The natural next question is why one of the best shooting teams in the league can no longer make their looks. It's a mix of the team replacing good shooters with players who aren't hitting shots as well as incumbent players just shooting worse.

Eleven players took at least 100 threes for the Cavaliers last season. Seven of them are on the roster this season. Of the four who aren't around, a couple of them left at the deadline last season (Georges Niang, Caris LeVert) and two left in the offseason (Ty Jerome, Isaac Okoro). Of the outgoing players, three of them shot better than 40% from three with Cleveland last season, with one (Jerome) shooting 44% and the fourth (Okoro) shooting 37%.

Those four players were essentially replaced by Lonzo Ball (shooting 26% from deep), a full season of De'Andre Hunter (30% on threes) and lots more opportunity for Jaylon Tyson (47% on threes).

The problems go beyond what happened in the offseason.

Max Strus was No. 4 on the team in 3PAs last season despite playing just 50 games. He hit 39% from deep. He hasn't played a single possession this season due to injury. All of those shots are going to other players. Sam Merrill was third in total attempts last season; he's tied with Tyson for fifth in attempts this year due to injury; he hasn't gotten worse at all, just less available. Dean Wade's shooting has slipped (36% to 30%) and Evan Mobley has dipped (37% to 35%) with higher frequency.

And then there's Darius Garland, who has played in just 11 of the team's 27 games and hasn't looked fully healthy in any of them. On high frequency, Garland's gone from 40% from deep to 28%. He shot 0/11 from deep in that disaster loss to Washington on Friday. Only four players in NBA history have ever taken more threes in a game without a make. Coming into this year, Garland hadn't shot worse than 37% from deep since his rookie season. Either the toe is completely destroying his ability to create space and shoot in rhythm, or he's on a persistent cold spell that will snap at some point.

Garland actually had his best game of the season on Sunday in Cleveland's disaster loss to Charlotte: 26 points on 8/19 shooting (3/7 from deep), 9 assists, 4 turnovers. Unfortunately for the Cavs, that coincided with Donovan Mitchell's worst game of the season.

Garland reverting to form would help Cleveland's offense a lot. Reports on Strus are all over the place, but January seems like a reasonable return target. Merrill is day-to-day. Mobley is now out for a few weeks, which may really hurt Cleveland's defense and force enough Jarrett Allen minutes to hurt the Cavs' offensive balance. Hunter shot way above his career average last season, but he's also not nearly as shaky a shooter as he's shown this season. Ball very well could be at this point.

This is all to say that hope is a mixed bag. There has been a lot of trade chatter around Cleveland, and Allen has been near the trade block for seemingly ever. Garland is the real swing prize, but it'd be weird to trade him at such a low point unless the value is excellent. Meanwhile, the shooting woes haven't touched Mitchell, who is near a career high in 3P% and is leading the NBA in 3PM and 3PA. He's legitimately playing better than ever, which makes the team's woes around him all the more frustrating.

Whether shots fall or not is part strategy, part talent, part fortune. The strategy all worked to excellent effect last season. There has been a noticeable talent downgrade in this category. And without question, fortune is not smiling on Cleveland right now. That flipping would probably solve a lot of problems for the Cavaliers, but it's also the one category outside anyone's control. So it goes.

Scores

Pistons 112, Celtics 105 – Detroit Is Legitimate Part XIII. Helluva battle, but Cade Cunningham has everything you need.

Raptors 106, Heat 96 – Best wishes to Nikola Jovic, who suffered a nasty arm injury. Good win for Toronto.

Mavericks 133, Jazz 140 (OT) – Cooper Flagg becomes the youngest player in NBA history to score 40.

The Mavericks lost because without Anthony Davis they could not stop the fearsome trio of Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George and, uh, Kyle Filipowski. Utah is not good, but the Jazz might legitimately be too good to keep their pick (top-8 protected). At no point this season has Utah looked like a bottom-5 team except when they've played against the Thunder. But then most teams look like a bottom-5 team when facing the Thunder.

Rockets 125, Nuggets 128 (OT) – HAYMAKERS. Let's get a playoff series, please. And let's make the referees' whistles don't work in the closing minutes.

Speaking of the officiating, Ime Udoka went in.

Grizzlies 121, Clippers 103 – You know who's not throwing haymakers? The Clippers. Like, ever. They got Cam Spencered.

Spencer vs. Spencer in a play-in game, perchance?

Take a Ride in My Old Neighborhood

I just want to go back, back to 1999, experience high-stake Spurs vs. Knicks action.

The NBA Cup championship is your only NBA game on Tuesday. 8:30 PM Eastern on Prime Video. It's a coronation either way, and should be a helluva game.

Alright, thanks for spending some time with Good Morning It's Basketball. Be excellent to each other.