The early case for Erik Spoelstra winning Coach of the Year

He won a couple championships as head coach, but Coach of the Year has eluded him. Will there be a case this year? Yes, if we make one.

Good morning. It's Free Newsletter Wednesday. Let's basketball.

It's a common cliche at this point to say that Erik Spoelstra is the best active and maybe all-time NBA head coach without a single Coach of the Year trophy to his name.

This is largely due to circumstance. Spoelstra's first adventure in head coaching – with the Heatles – came with heavy expectations, expectations Miami largely met (four straight trips to the NBA Finals, two titles). Spoelstra, though, seemed more on the defensive from stories about beefs with LeBron James and mismanagement of Chris Bosh than poised to be celebrated. Spoelstra's best case for Coach of the Year in that era came in 2012-13, fresh off the collective's first title together and finishing with a 66-16, one of the best marks in league history. Spoelstra finished a distant second in Coach of the Year voting, however, well behind Denver's George Karl, who'd taken the Nuggets to the No. 2 seed in a post-Carmelo environment.

Spoelstra's next good case came in 2015-16, when in the post-Heatles era he took a Miami team with half of a season of Bosh, late-career Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside to 48 wins and the No. 3 seed. Spo barely registered for voters, who picked 73-win Steve Kerr. Spoelstra finished 10th in voting.

The next opportunity: 2021-22. Miami had shockingly made the NBA Finals two years prior in the bubble, a testament to Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo's tireless work and Spoelstra's ability to squeeze production from unlikely places (like a very young Tyler Herro and scrap heap players like Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn and Meyers Leonard). Two years later, he had Butler, Bam, a more mature Herro, very mature P.J. Tucker and Kyle Lowry, Robinson and some new scrap heap stars like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin. Miami won 53 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. And Spoelstra finished third in Coach of the Year voting behind Monty Williams (who was peaking in Phoenix and coming off of a Finals run) and Taylor Jenkins (who had Memphis as an ill-fated No. 2 seed in the West).

Spoelstra earned a look in 2023-24 after another Finals run with Butler, Bam and Herro, though Miami was a play-in team with 46 wins. Spoelstra finished No. 7 in voting.

The best candidates for Coach of the Year do one of three things:

• Win a metric ton of games
• Destroy expectations with a roster voters consider overmatched
• Preside over huge win total increases

It's unlikely anyone in the East wins even 60 games this season because the East is going to be tough (almost) every night. Miami doesn't project as a 60-win team in any case given Giannis Antetokounmpo's age and a relative lack of secondary creators. That said, expectations aren't exactly low for the Heat: after trading for one of the best five players in the world, you are expected to win lots of games. Hitting 50 wins, for example, wouldn't shock anyone.

If Spoelstra has a textbook case, it will be from a big win total increase, something the Heat have never cleanly experienced in Spo's reign because the Heat are usually pretty good. Miami won 43 games last season; if they hit 53 or so, that's a nice jump – about 12 percentage points in win percentage. Winners who got the nod from this angle in recent years (Mark Daigneault, Mike Brown, Tom Thibodeau) saw even bigger jumps on the order of 20-25 percentage points, but launching from 43 to 53 wins would be impressive (instead of the more typical 20s or 30s to above .500).

Spo will need help, though. He needs a narrative beyond the team's performance since Giannis will likely draw a large chunk of credit there. The nice thing is that the narrative is pretty damn straightforward: Erik Spoelstra is an excellent NBA coach! He is flexible in building strategies around the strengths of his roster, not at all dogmatic about how he thinks basketball should be played. His teams consistently perform quite well on defense. He is a tactical master. His ledger is full of reclamation projects and developmental diamonds in the rough. Yes, Miami has a history of pulling stars. But for every LeBron, Bosh, Jimmy and Giannis in Spoelstra's coaching history, there's a Whiteside, a Strus, a Robinson, a Davion Mitchell. Spoelstra puts players on the fringes of the NBA in position to succeed at a very high level.

The narrative is that outside the contours of any given season, Spoelstra is one of the best NBA head coaches of the modern era, and has the record to prove it, and it's odd and unrepresentative of the league since his debut in 2008 that he does not have the trophy dedicated to great coaching. He has earned it, and it's high time he won it. That's the case right now, even if the traditional case in terms of beating expectations or racking up massive win totals isn't there in the end. The award is for a single season of work, but there's nothing preventing voters from taking career context into account. Spo has earned the honor over time, and he should get a more sympathetic look as a result.

With that said, here's GMIB's official preseason longlist for Coach of the Year. Yes, there is a little overlap with the Hot Seat Rankings. It's the NBA. Of course there are people who straddle the fine line between feted and fired.

• Erik Spoelstra, Miami
• Rick Carlisle, Indiana
• Darko Rajakovic, Toronto
• Will Hardy, Utah
• J.J. Redick, Los Angeles
• Mike Brown, New York
• Nick Nurse, Philadelphia
• Sean Sweeney, Orlando
• Mitch Johnson, San Antonio
• Chris Finch, Minnesota
• David Adelman, Denver
• Jordi Fernandez, Brooklyn

We'll update the longlist a third of the way into the season.

He's a Pritch, He's a Lover

Payton Pritchard, on one of the most underpaid contracts in the NBA, has agreed to an extension more representative of his talents. The deal is two years, $44 million, with a mutual option in 2029-30. (Mutual options: all the rage all of a sudden.)

Pritchard is making less than $8 million this season, and is on the books for another $8 million next season. That's 5% of the cap for a player who has been a key piece of a championship team and might be the third best Celtic right now. The new deal is projected at about 12% of the salary cap. Not quite as screaming a deal as the current extension, but a good deal for Boston all the same. That the raise kicks in after Paul George's current deal is definitely off the books – PG has a lucrative player option for next season – is ideal.

Why would Pritchard, whose importance is only rising as the Celtics shed high-end scorers like Jaylen Brown, take this deal? The market is not ideal for sub-max players, or even for max players, so locking in one generational wealth season while the going is good – and for a totally professional franchise who wins a lot in a great city – is a totally reasonable decision, even if Pritchard might be able to lock in a longer deal for more overall money if he waited for free agency. That path has a lot of uncertainty.

Let the Lowe Flow

Thanks for all the player names from the former Yugoslavia. Lots of Toni Kukoc love, our boy Drazen Petrovic of course, Nikola Pekovic ... Nikola Jokic, too. I did not automatically eliminate Vlade Divac mentions despite his work to ensure the Kings drafted Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic (Slovenia). I was pleased to see some Darko Milicices but disappointed at the distinct lack of Zarko Cabarkapas. And whither Poku and Smailagic?!

Friend of the Newsletter PSvirsky has some 1-month free subs to Zach Lowe's new newsletter to give away, too, so if you are one of these 10 people, email me directly (just respond to this email) and we'll get you hooked up.

• Shane O
• Heather Haavisto
• Michael Branch
• jkestner
• Tim Button
• Keith H
• Jon
• Sean
• pdempsey
• Mitch K

We're going to do another subscriber-only giveaway in a couple weeks. Stay tuned.

Yes, It's Still Preseason

I'm surprised at how happy I am to see Kings legend Tyrese Haliburton play so much like himself this preseason. The chemistry with Ivica Zubac is building!

Kawhi Leonard made his preseason debut for the Raptors. He looks good. The Raptors look good!

Just clocking this for the record: Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber have all sat out all of the Thunder's preseason games so far.

Steve Kerr has quietly revealed his potential opening night starting five: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos and Yaxel Lendeborg. Interesting.

I mentioned earlier this week that Boston looks excellent in preseason. Paul Flannery elucidates the ways in which the Celtics might be improved despite trading away an excellent player in Jaylen Brown.

We are not going to talk about Nique Clifford going 0/11 from the floor with half the Kings roster resting, OK?

Schedule

All times Eastern.

Nets at Heat, 7:30
Hornets at Celtics, 7:30
Pelicans at Mavericks, 8:30, NBA TV
Bulls at Bucks, 8
Pistons at Timberwolves, 8
Suns at Spurs, 8
Nuggets at Clippers, 10:30, NBA TV

Be excellent to each other.