Heist night in the NBA
Good morning. No one who played Monday wanted to know the odds, because they meant nothing. Let's basketball.
Good morning. No one who played Monday wanted to know the odds, because they meant nothing. Let's basketball.
Heist 1: The Rip
Jayson Tatum cooked in the first quarter, everyone else in the Boston whites got loose in the second quarter and it looked like we were headed for a Game 1 blow-out with the Celtics leading the Knicks by 16 at the half. Then O.G. Anunoby unlocked the gates to heaven and New York came roaring back, giving us an entertaining fourth quarter that nearly ended with a Jalen Brunson game-winner. Instead it went to overtime, where Mikal Bridges completely took over.
Two steals, a block and a three in the extra frame for Bridges. The rip on Jaylen Brown on the final possession was crazy and genius: even if Bridges get called for a foul reaching for the ball, the Knicks have one to give and it'd be really hard for Brown to sell a shot attempt with an opponent's arm in his breadbasket. But that was beside the point, because Bridges ripped it clean. Final score: Knicks 108, Celtics 105.
The Celtics led this game by 20. They simply went ice cold from deep – 15/60 overall, with Tatum and Derrick White each missing 11 and Brown missing nine – and didn't have many other ideas. This has been a key but usually moot critique of the Celtics. It wasn't moot on Monday. Kristaps Porzingis left early due to illness and Sam Hauser left early with an ankle injury. High screen action with Porzingis is another set Boston can spam to success, and that went missing. That relieved some defensive pressure on Karl-Anthony Towns for sure.
In any case, New York beats Boston for this the first time in five tries this season. They just need to do it three more times in the next six games. Bing bong.
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Heist 2: The Equation
"Foul up three" is smart. It makes mathematical sense. There is a logic to it. If AI were going to play a basketball game, AI would definitely foul up three. But as it turns out, sometimes giving your opponent free points in a close endgame scenario comes back to bite you in the ass.
The particular scenario here is a rulebreaker. OKC started to intentionally foul up three with 12.9 seconds left. Nikola Jokic, a titan made human by the gods of Olympus, made both to give him 42 for the night. The Thunder call time up one with the shot clock off. The Nuggets were obviously going to foul, so David Adelman pulls Jokic – who has five fouls – out, planning to re-insert him during the free throws. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a cut to get free going to the rim, and scores an easy lay-up.
Denver is down three with 11.1 seconds remaining, has no time-outs, there's no stoppage and Jokic is off the floor. This is a remarkable gift for Oklahoma City ... that they immediately throw in the garbage. The rest is a blur that ends with Chet Holmgren missing a pair of free throws and Aaron Gordon hitting a second game-winner this postseason.
On the one hand, Mark Daigneault noted that the Thunder are typically a team that fouls up three. You do generally want to stick to your gameplan and not be swayed by the moment. However, circumstances were such that the gameplan did not make sense in this instance. Fouling up three should be limited to when there's less time remaining – not just the shot clock being off, but single-digit seconds and no timeouts should be criteria there. Jokic being off the floor is another wrinkle: this would have been seen as a major blunder for Adelman had the Nuggets been forced to get up a final shot without the three-time MVP on the court and no timeouts. Instead, it becomes a Daigneault blunder. Nuggets win 121-119.
Some have said that this is moot if Chet Holmgren hits his free throws. That's not entirely true. Since OKC is into math, let's go into the math.
Holmgren is a 78% career free throw shooter. The four potential outcomes here are that he makes both (61% probability), that he misses both (5% probability), that he makes the first and misses the second (17% probability) and that he misses the first and makes the second (17% probability). If he misses at least one of them (39%), OKC can no longer intentionally foul, giving Denver a chance to tie with a two or take a lead with a three. The situation is similar whether he misses both or misses just the second (22% probability): Denver has a live ball and a chance to take the lead, leaving OKC minimal time and no time-outs. Holmgren has to hit both (again, 61% probability based on his career shooting percentage, ignoring any stress factors related to a high-pressure playoff game or crunch time) for OKC to continue their Foul Up Three strategy and prevent Denver from taking control.
The tactic often works and makes logical sense. And yet it absolutely contributed to costing the Thunder a playoff game. Back to the lab.
You know what else contributed to the Thunder loss? Freaking Nikola Jokic.
This stuff is obscene. Stick an MA rating on Nuggets games when Jokic is dominating like this. The fourth quarter alone is amazing. Best player alive, and it's not debatable. (This is not a comment on the MVP race; I would have gone Shai, who was really good in this game and spectacular all season.)
Aaron Gordon remains the most phenomenal sidekick. Russell Westbrook made the perfect pass to Gordon on that break for the win. That's faith and love and it paid off.
You know what else contributed? Jalen Williams, 5/20 from the floor – great contributions on defense, of course, including that wild block on Gordon in the closing minute. But your second option needs to be more efficient offensively to win a title.
Alex Caruso might have been OKC's second best player in the game with 20 points, 6 assists and 5 steals off the bench. Daigneault has decisions to make with his closing group, but it's going to be really hard to keep Caruso off the floor.
Helluva game and helluva start to a series. That crowd is going to be tighter than a fiddle string for Game 2. Will the Thunder players be the same?
Schedule
We roll on to Tuesday. All times Eastern.
Pacers at Cavaliers, 7, TNT (IND leads 1-0)
Warriors at Timberwolves, 9:30, TNT (GAME 1)
Links
Tom Haberstroh on James Harden in Games 7.
A'ja Wilson's signature sneaker is hitting retail this week. Mike Sykes with some tips on how to get them.
Katie Heindl on the Grizzlies hitting the ground hard.
Gregg Popovich appeared at Mitch Johnson's press conference to unveil his personal trainers on his road to recovery (Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) and his new role with the Spurs.
From Andrew Marchand at The Athletic:
During the 1990s, Jim Fagan’s voice narrated the promos for NBC’s coverage of Michael Jordan, Shaquille O’Neal and Hakeem Olajuwon.
Now, he will do so again when NBC promotes its NBA coverage that begins again next season. However, the setup is rather unique because Fagan died in 2017.
In an agreement between the network and Fagan’s family, NBC will use Fagan’s AI-generated voice to create modern promos with an old-time feel. NBC said it will also hire current vocal artists to complement their presentations.
This is bad, and NBC should not do this.
Logan Murdock on whether the Warriors will learn the right lessons from the first round.
Alright, that's all I've got. Be excellent to each other.
