The Pistons aren't bluffing, and won't. When will Jalen Duren back down?

The All-NBA restricted free agent reportedly wants just shy of the normal rookie extension max. Detroit is holding firm at a lower number. The team will probably win.

Good morning. MapQuest, now that's a name I haven't heard in a long time ... a long time. Let's basketball.

ESPN's ace Tim MacMahon has an update on Jalen Duren's contract stand-off with the Detroit Pistons. The update is that there really is no update. Duren is aiming for the $40 million range in annual average value for the deal, which is right around the normal rookie extension max (25% of the cap). The Pistons, according to MacMahon, have offered around $35 million per year (about 21% of the cap). Duren's actually eligible for 30% of the cap by virtue of his third team All-NBA nod last season; that'd be a starting salary close to $50 million. (That's what Cade Cunningham will make this season on Year 2 of his designated player extension.) Meanwhile, the Pistons, who seem to truly love Duren and see a long-term fit with him, Cunningham and extension-eligible Ausar Thompson, are not considering any sign-and-trade discussions.

This is a real impasse. The finances or years are not so far apart that a resolution seems impossible: a pre-training camp deal for 22.5% of the cap ($37 million in starting salary, a 5-year, $215 million deal in the end) seems viable for everyone from 30,000 feet. That's an overall $24 million discount over the base max extension that Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jalen Williams received. You can see Duren's position – he likely considers himself more of a winning player than Banchero and perhaps more crucial to the Pistons' relevance than either Chet or J-Dub individually due to the presence of each other. But we also all saw the playoffs, where Duren was completely neutralized for two full rounds.

In the past, I've advocated that these high-octane restricted free agents actually use their leverage and sign the $9 million qualifying offer, which would give him an effective trade veto and set him up to be unrestricted next summer. Given the state of free agency in 2026, that's no longer a viable strategy. Duren is excellent and young, and there's a significant chance that a team would be able to open up the cap space to sign him outright without Detroit's participation as an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Kings have been discussed as enamored with Duren all summer, and tried to push Detroit into sign-and-trade talks; Sacramento is expected to have significant cap space next summer, depending on how a potential Domantas Sabonis trade shakes out. Chicago would have been a threat this summer if the timing worked, and could be in position next year. There are a legitimate handful of teams that might go for broke to sign Duren as an unrestricted free agent next summer if he has another wonderful regular season and doesn't completely disappear in the playoffs. Even Detroit could be willing to climb above their current offer levels to retain him if he shows out again, and if perhaps Thompson's price comes in lower than anticipated.

But it's just a massive, massive risk. At the current offer levels, by taking the qualifying offer Duren would be giving up $26 million in 2026-27 salary. If he were to sign outright with a different team in the 2027 offseason, his max contract would be 25% of the cap with max 5% annual raises and a maximum term of four years. Because it wouldn't be an extension, Duren's All-NBA status would be irrelevant. So next summer, the max Duren could sign for with another team given current cap projections is four years, $186 million. Add that to the $9 million from the qualifying offer and you have a total 5-year compensation level of $195 million.

MacMahon reports that the current Pistons offer has an annual value around $35 million. So that'd be about $175 million over five years.

The upside reward for Duren is $20 million over five years. Or, to torture an idiom, Duren has to decide whether a 175 million birds in his hand are worth more than 195 million birds in the bush. To me, there's enormous downside risk for Duren and not a ton of upside ... especially because the status quo is a very good, young team with a staff and roster that Duren seemed to love (until negotiations resumed). This isn't some purgatory tank team (any more). This is a legitimate East contender and a serious organization. The value in "escaping," which can often be tied to these restricted free agency standoffs, is irrelevant here, unless the Philly-area native Duren really doesn't like life in Michigan.

This is why Detroit is comfortable letting this play out: they know Duren is bluffing. No player in his right mind with a capable agent will actually sign the qualifying offer. But because the Pistons don't feel real pressure, they are not feeling it necessary to budge much at this stage, which is why that sensible compromise isn't on the table from either side. Duren's in no rush either, especially if he and his agent know deep down the qualifying offer path is not viable. They could clank swords and start agitating about wanting out, and blah blah blah, but the Pistons know that's all empty, and Duren would know that's all empty, and in the end perhaps Duren will cave or perhaps the Pistons will cave (the differences here are only slightly material in the grand scheme of team-building, getting the great player is way more crucial than minimizing their cap hit) or they'll hit the middle ground. Maybe they'll walk up to the brink of training camp, or Duren will miss media day to make Trajan Langdon sweat. Maybe it'll be done tomorrow. Neither side is blinking right now, but we all can do the math and know the stakes for Duren. Eventually, rationality will win and Duren will divert his gaze. Maybe it'll be the giant pile of cash that will break his stare.

Speaking of Rational Humans ...

Aaron Turner, Jonathan Kuminga's suddenly infamous agent, is still making the rounds. The dude's endurance in recording podcast interviews is incredible. He went on Kevin O'Connor's Yahoo! podcast, where KOC started off by – as my kids would say – "sliming Turner out." Just watch the first 45 seconds of this.

Brutal. That's nasty work, as my kids would say.

Everyone needs someone they trust and hear who can tell them when they are making a damn fool of themselves. Turner blaming a rumor no one believed for everyone criticizing him (Turner) is a total cop-out, because the dude (Turner) has been telling everyone his and his client's business for a whole damn year on the record on podcasts and whatnot. Folks are using his own claims to criticize him. There is one person crucially misunderstanding the situation to the significant detriment of Jonathan Kuminga, and that is Aaron Turner.

If Jonathan Kuminga were crashing out like this in the media, I would hope that Aaron Turner would pull him aside, get him to zoom out a bit and convince him to chill. But Kuminga is actually mature enough not to get this worked up in the public eye. Maybe Turner needs some advice from his client. The so-called trusted advisor needs a trusted advisor.

Beware the Brain Poison, Beloveds

This is not generally a sports media criticism space, but I would be remiss to avoid joining the Bill Simmons discourse. (Your boy loves a Discourse.)

Disclaimer time. I have never worked with or for The Sports Guy, unlike many of my former colleagues who did time with him at ESPN, Grantland or The Ringer. We were broadly peers for a time (in the way that Pacome Dadiet is a peer of Victor Wembanyama [I am Pacome in this example]) in the NBA content space; we exchanged emails for a couple years; we had a few public spats no one but me remembers (mostly around the 2011 NBA lockout); he shouted me out positively during an 2014 NBA Finals pre-game broadcast on a point about Kawhi Leonard and Spurs culture. That's pretty much the extent of our history, which is to say there isn't much. That's the disclaimer. I still listen to him on the NBA quite a lot, I adore many of his colleagues at The Ringer and I think the company has broadly been a huge positive for sports media. I have industry friends who also have generational beef with Bill, and I respect their distaste for him as a result.

Three points:

1. Bill apparently acknowledged proxy betting on FanDuel through his daughter's boyfriend, who lives in Massachusetts. I don't follow the NFL and I don't gamble so I did not listen to the NFL gambling podcast in question. Apparently FanDuel – a major Ringer sponsor – has taken some sort of action and reported it to the state gambling authorities. YIKES. This has long been a thought in the back of my head given how much Bill talks about gambling on his NBA pods (it's kind of constant, it's really the prism through which he discusses contemporary basketball). App-based sports betting is not available in California, where Bill and I both live. In the past, he has tried to couch his action as being set "when he was visiting Boston" or whatever. He has been less careful to note that lately, and totally just blurted it out on the recent pod. Again, YIKES.
2. I don't consistently listen to The Rewatchables (a podcast about movies that are rewatchable according to someone, usually Bill), but apparently Bill – whose show is now sponsored by ChatGPT – has begun to ask said AI chatbot to invoke the voice of the late, great Roger Ebert to review movies made after the legendary critic's death. Bill has then read parts of these fake reviews during the podcasts. YIKES. Bill's frequent co-host Sean Fennessey, who is a serious film critic and has appeared on the podcasts during which Bill does this trick, says he hates it but can't do anything about it.
3. The daughter's boyfriend as a gambling mule. The chatbot-reanimation of a legendary writer. It's not great, man. But the thing that clenched my teeth the most lately, the thing I can't quite get past is actually not something Bill said. It's something he wore.

Anduril, for those blissfully unaware, is a major defense contractor that builds autonomous combat drones and insane surveillance systems used by the U.S. military and the government's paramilitary border patrol and immigration enforcement agencies. The company was seeded by Founders Fund, the venture capital firm run by Peter Thiel.

WHO WEARS A HAT PROMOTING THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL DEFENSE CONTRACTOR ON THE PLANET ON A DAY IN WHICH YOU ARE RECORDING A LIVE SHOW AIRING ON NETFLIX?

It's a either a political statement (even if that statement is to troll his larger younger, probably more progressive staff) or it's evidence of brain rot. Can you imagine someone wearing a Raytheon hat during Vietnam? Or a Haliburton (not Tyrese) t-shirt during the second Iraq War? What is going on here?!

Thankfully, co-host Chris Ryan (one of the best internet personalities we have) called him out in real time, albeit playfully. If the intent was to get a reaction, mission accomplished.

In conclusion, Bill needs someone he trusts and hears who can tell him when he is making a damn fool of himself. Maybe Aaron Turner is free.

Damn, that was a long newsletter. Be excellent to each other.