The pressure of a 'can't miss' draft board

If the four top prospects are all expected to be good to great NBA players, how do front office slice the information to make the right pick? Shadows of 2022 spread.

Good morning. We are one day from the Knicks' championship parade and six days from the NBA Draft. And it's Free Newsletter Wednesday. Let's basketball.

All season, mediocre and worse teams fought for the honor of nabbing a top-3 pick. The prize is a seemingly impossible choice between four extremely promising prospects. A.J. Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson and Caleb Wilson would all be worthy No. 1 picks in most drafts – not your Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg years, but in many other years.

The Wizards are up first and aiming for the play-in at worst in 2026-27 and the playoffs soon after. At least, that's what it looks like Washington is trying to do after trading for Trae Young and Anthony Davis. Utah at No. 2 is in the same boat. Neither is set up to be the new OKC or San Antonio because neither has an apparent MVP candidate on the roster. But the desire to pick up a fast forward button in the draft is there. Memphis and Chicago, picking Nos. 3 and 4, need cornerstone talent.

This all creates interesting and different pressure for the front offices making these decisions. It's frankly easier for Memphis and Chicago to react to what happens above them: the Grizzlies can take whoever is left out of Dybantsa, Boozer and Peterson, or land on Wilson if they have qualms. Chicago can take whoever remains, or trade out to grab an extra asset if they don't love the leftovers. All indications are that Washington will take Dybantsa No. 1, though Peterson appears to believe he has a real chance to go first overall because he's limiting his workouts to only the Wizards. It's also a signal that Peterson isn't interested in landing in Utah, which is not a new one for the Jazz – we all remember the Ace Bailey drama last year, drama that disappeared as soon as Bailey arrived in Salt Lake ahead of Summer League.

This feels a lot like the 2022 draft, where down to the final hours there was debate and mystery around how Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith Jr. would shake out for Orlando, Oklahoma City and Houston. It happened in that order, and that probably ended up correct, though Jalen Williams is probably the best player from that draft at this point. All three of those players have hit, albeit at different levels. There's no one in the top 10 of that draft you'd take above them, and while there were some All-Stars in the 10s and 20s of that draft (Williams, Jalen Duren), they were simply not viable top-3 picks. Two other top-10 picks (Jaden Ivey, Johnny Davis) are completely out of the league right now, and others (Keegan Murray, Bennedict Mathurin, Dyson Daniels, Shaedon Sharpe) are at interesting points in their careers. Jeremy Sochan, No. 9, played the final possession of an NBA Finals close-out game, so there's that.

This is all to say that in 2022 Orlando and Oklahoma City made the right picks and it ended up totally fine for both teams and Houston. There were no terrible options in that three-player draft. Had Orlando taken Smith No. 1, as was heavily rumored for a time, they would have been under some criticism because Paolo and Chet are, to this point, a level above (though both came under fair scrutiny this postseason). But it wouldn't have been particularly deleterious to their franchise trajectories. That's likely to repeat in 2026 unless one of the four players ends up in MVP conversations on their rookie deal, or unless one of the four players ends up as a bust.

Is there bust potential here? Peterson has gotten the unpredictable tag due to his odd Kansas season that included some unavailability, some weird quotes from Bill Self and some on-court lethargy. But Peterson as a player looks totally plug-and-play as a high-level two-way performer at a guard spot.

Boozer's intelligence and NBA body make it seem wholly unlikely that he'll be anything less than a good starter. The quickness is a question to me, but touch and footwork feels totally transferable.

Dybantsa's skill set and NBA athleticism bode the same, unless he simply cannot score at the required level, which seems unlikely. His cadence is very modern. (Someone should study the evolution of high-end athletes learning eurosteps and stutter steps from a young age. Who started this trend?)

Wilson, who doesn't appear to be in the mix for Nos. 1 or 2, appears to be the highest-potential defender in the mix, and we just saw throughout the playoffs how important having a team full of good defenders with a few great defenders is in the modern NBA. He's also a hellacious finisher and shows some solid body control potential.

Again, this feels like a can't-miss top four. For the Wizards and Jazz, it's about assessing whether one of these dudes is not only can't-miss, but is another level of potential stardom in him. It could honestly be any of the four. That's what the job is for these executives. That's what the money's for.

Links

Dan Devine on the Knicks' roster blueprint and repeat dreams.

Paul Flannery on the persistent Giannis to Boston rumors and a framing that it is an all or nothing proposition.

The video we all need to cap off the season: No Dunks' 2025-26 wedgies supercut! I'll never forget the Kings' double-wedgie performance in the NBA Cup. Honestly, a highlight of the year.

Kelly Dwyer on San Antonio's future.

Katie Baker on Karl-Anthony Towns' narrative flip.

Katie Heindl on O.G. Anunoby's moment of triumph.

Giri Nathan on the circus the Knicks took on the road to San Antonio.

Rodger Sherman reacts to his favorite team finally winning a title in his lifetime. Same angle from Jared Dubin.

James Herbert on Jose Alvardo's hero turn.

The '26 Finals was the most-watched since 1998, beating 2016 (Warriors-LeBron II) and two Lakers-Celtics series. Pretty incredible. I need to learn more about calculation changes before I make any broad statements about this, but it seems like an amazing sign about both the Knicks and Victor Wembanyama's pull.

The final Ringer 100 of the season. Two teams lack even a single player on the list: Memphis and Sacramento.

Vital information about the prevalence of [American State] Fried Chicken shops in the United Kingdom. I would be nervous to try a biscuit from Alaska Fried Chicken, not gonna lie.

And finally: the best moments from Mikal Bridges' very salty (i.e. NSFW/NSFK) drunken live stream on Monday.

Alright then. If you're a paid subscriber, we'll see you Thursday morning. If you're free subscriber or a non-subscriber, we'll see you next Wednesday for draft reaction ... unless you want to become a paid subscriber for $7 per month or $70 per year, in which case, hit that button and we'll see you tomorrow.

Be excellent to each other.