The GMs don't know, either

Not even those closest to the game can pick champions these days. Good morning. Let's basketball.

John Schuhmann's essential annual survey of the NBA's 30 team general manager is out for this year. The key takeaway is that 24 of the 30 GMs said Oklahoma City will repeat as champions. In reality, 25 of the 30 probably think that, but GMs can't vote for their own teams or players in this exercise, so Sam Presti had to pick someone else. That's a pretty high level of consensus.

You know what else had wide consensus? The GMs a year ago, when 25 of the 30 said the Celtics would repeat as champions. Boston didn't make it out of the second round.

We don't know who is going to win the championship any given year, and neither do the league's general managers. The GMs have correctly picked exactly one champion in Schuhmann's preseason survey in the past seven years, and even that has an asterisk. Ahead of the 2023-24 season, 10 GMs each picked Denver and Boston as the eventual champion. (The Nuggets had won the prior June.) The Celtics ended up claiming the banner.

In 2018-19, the GMs picked the Warriors. The Raptors surprisingly beat them in the Finals. In 2019-20, the GMs picked the Clippers, who lost in the second round. In 2020-21, the GMs picked the Lakers to repeat. They lost in the first round. In 2021-22, the GMs picked the Nets! They were swept in the first round. (It was a competitive sweep, though.) In 2022-23, the GMs picked the Bucks. They got smoked in the first round. In 2023-24, the GMs got it half right with the Celtics. In 2024-25, the GMs got it wildly wrong with the Celtics.