How lottery reform redux could change the NBA

Tanking hasn't been destroyed, just changed. But how will the policy change how teams see themselves and build their rosters?

Good morning. Let's basketball.

The NBA Board of Governors approved its latest version of lottery reform last week. Dubbed the 3-2-1 plan, the odds are flattened out more than at any point since the early '90s. A refresher on the odds for each team based on final reverse standings:

• Worst team: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
• 2nd Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
• 3rd Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
• 4th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 5th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 6th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 7th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 8th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 9th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 10th Worst: 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 11th Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 12th Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 13th Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 14th Worst: 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• Worst 7/8 game loser: 2.7% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
• 2nd Worst 7/8 game loser: 2.7% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16

Obviously, the sweet spot for teams that decide in the offseason or at some point during the season that they are not interested in or capable of competing for a playoff spot is to finish No. 4-10 to maximize their chances of winning a top pick. There is no advantage to being bad enough to be the fourth worst team – in fact, there's a consequence in that you have to watch the bottom three and stay out of it, if possible. So the sweet spot within the sweet spot if you're desperate to pick as high as possible, as many terrible teams are, is really that 6-7-8 range – not so bad you risk the Zone of Shame, not so good you risk a play-in berth.

Over the past five years, the seventh-worst team in the NBA has averaged a 29-53 record. That's the target for bad teams. The question is how easy or difficult it will be to hit that target, how many teams will go for it given the uncertainty you'll even pick in the top 10 if you land in that sweet spot, and how it will affect the rest of the NBA contractual ecosystem. Let's try to sort it out.