Sorting all 30 teams ahead of the stretch run

We have five tiers to sort teams into with a third of the regular season remaining. Who makes the cut as a title contender? What do the playoff and play-in races look like?

Good morning. The All-Star Break is still on. Let's basketball.

Teams all have about a third of their seasons remaining. The good news is that it seems the playoffs themselves will be wide open and heavily subject to matchups and health. The bad news is that there really are very few spicy playoff and play-in races on the table. Let's go deeper by sorting all 30 teams into five tiers, starting at the top.

Title Contenders

As longtime readers know, I'm a title contention maximalist. Recent history supports this position strongly. Even in years where it appears there's an overwhelming favorite, reality can get in the way. And there's no overwhelming favorite this season due to various injuries and upstarts. So I have a whopping nine title contenders at the two-thirds mark of the season.

Pistons (40-13): Detroit has the best record in the league and has been very consistent. The Pistons have only lost two games in a row twice and never more. Do you know how they've been able to be so consistent? Defense that doesn't take nights off. The challenge for all comers in the East playoffs will be to beat that defense four times in seven games. Good luck.

Thunder (42-14): Oklahoma City has looked at times invincible and at times vulnerable this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been incredibly consistent (as always) and the defense remains top-notch. Inconsistent availability for Jalen Williams and the role players has probably contributed to the sporadic shakiness, but you have to wonder if J-Dub will be at full-strength and looking like his 2025 self when the playoffs arrive. There's also the specter of some tough salary decisions this summer hanging over it all.

Spurs (38-16): Look, they have the third-best record in the league, they are 4-1 against the defending champs and they have a top-3 player. They are legitimate championship contenders. There is indeed a dearth of playoff experience here beyond Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet, but does anyone believe Victor Wembanyama will shrink in that moment? Does anyone think Stephon Castle will be intimidated? Consider me skeptical. (Plus: De'Aaron Fox was incredible in his single playoff series as a King. He just got Stephed.)

Celtics (35-19): So, this aired during the All-Star Game.

All that footage is for a 5-part series called The Quiet Work that will air on NBC between their two Sunday night games. Meanwhile, the NBA bumped Sunday, March 1's Celtics vs. Sixers game to primetime so that NBC could air it. Which is all to say that Jayson Tatum is definitely coming back, which means that the Celtics – who have been an incredible story behind Jaylen Brown – are definitely title contenders.

Knicks (35-20): New York has the No. 3 offense in the league without it ever looking like it's clicking on all cylinders for more than a few games at a time. Such is the power of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. The defense has held up at No. 11 for the season, which is a good sign. Key in belief in the Knicks: they beat both of the East teams ahead of them in the playoffs last season. New York couldn't make the Finals in either of the past two years, but they've proven to perform well in the postseason in the Brunson era.

Cavaliers (34-21): The early days of the James Harden era in Cleveland could not have gone better. Assuming the Cavaliers win a first-round playoff series against Toronto, Philadelphia, Orlando or Miami – not a given! – they'd need to beat two elite offenses or one elite offense and an elite defense to make the Finals, which appears to be a make-or-break goal based on the Harden trade. Stopping those Boston and New York offenses would make me nervous, but this offense might end up being the best in the league.

Nuggets (35-20): Nikola Jokic doesn't look like he missed a beat during his injury absence, and Jamal Murray has continued his best regular season ever. The ongoing hamstring issue for Aaron Gordon is the biggest problem for Denver, and the random injuries that have afflicted Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Cam Johnson haven't helped. If Gordon's healthy in April and May, it's tough to imagine the Nuggets getting beat four times in seven games barring another injury or an extraordinary performance from their opponents. But the prognosis on that condition hasn't looked good so far.

Rockets (33-20): Yes, this is a shaky inclusion for a list of title contenders, even with Kevin Durant, who hasn't really contended for a title since 2022. But Durant remains an otherworldly scorer, Ime Udoka has taken flawed teams on long playoff runs before (well, one team), Alperen Sengun is really difficult for opponents to handle and Amen Thompson continues to improve. It's never pretty but this team has won at a good clip and is figuring out life after Steven Adams. Maybe. Sort of. I don't know.

Timberwolves (34-22): Some of us analysts keep pointing to the two straight Western Conference Finals as proof that this team is better than it often looks. Maybe that's myopic. After all, any team can lose in any given year. Nothing's ever promised. But Anthony Edwards is such a gamer, Rudy Gobert has had an excellent season, Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle have never looked better and the Ayo Dosunmu trade was legitimately inspired. Matchups matter but I think they have a real shot.

Playoff Contenders

Our next tier of six teams are those who don't have legitimate title hopes but are aiming to finish in the top six in their conference and avoid the play-in. Please ignore that the last two teams listed among the Title Contenders could also easily miss the playoffs and end up in the play-in.

Lakers (33-21): I am ready to announce that, finally, I don't buy this team as a title hopeful. The defense is just simply not going to be passable enough to beat three of these teams in the West. I can't find a realistic first-round matchup I'd pick them to win unless they somehow climb to the No. 2 seed (they are five games back, it's not happening). But they have been resilient enough to land a top-6 seed and avoid the terrors of the play-in.

Suns (32-23): This season is a massive success no matter what happens from here. But surely Phoenix wants that No. 6 seed, which would mean pushing a much more respected team down into the play-in. The Suns' whole identity right now is embarrassing opponents, so expect them to lean into that all the way. The offensive depth limitations almost assuredly means a first-round exit, though. (Unless they find a way to get into a series with the Lakers or someone facing a major injury.)

Raptors (32-23): Like the Suns, Toronto has been a real success no matter what happens next. Darko Rajakovic put together a strong defense centered around Scottie Barnes and the roster has good bench support behind a capable starting lineup. The moves of the last couple of years – flipping Pascal Siakam for picks, flipping O.G. Anunoby for players, grabbing Brandon Ingram in pre-agency – have built a good team. There are questions about whether greatness is on the table, but for now, the playoffs would be enough.

Sixers (30-24): The most volatile team coming into the season turns out to be ... pretty good and maybe very good? The Tyrese Maxey-V.J. Edgecombe backcourt has won over everyone, Joel Embiid has begun to look like a version of his MVP self, Paul George was presenting as a perfect role player ... before getting popped for banned substances and suspended for 25 games. And Embiid missed a couple games before the break with knee soreness. There's always a cloud with the Sixers, looming on the horizon.

Magic (28-25): Orlando was supposed to be a contender, and while they can use the injury excuse credibly, there will be little joy in merely making the playoffs. And even that will be a challenge: the Magic are a game-and-a-half behind Philadelphia for the No. 6 seed and at no point in this season have shown an ability to win consistently over multiple weeks. The offense is marginally better than in recent years, but the defense has slipped to league average. Paolo Banchero has had a really tough year for a supposed All-NBA caliber player. It's too early to give up on him or them, but if they end up in the play-in, as it currently appears they will, and don't do something incredible in the postseason, this is a bad place to be.

Heat (29-27): Miami started hot and drew a lot of interest with an unorthodox NBA offense. It turns out the offense is interesting but not terribly efficient with the personnel Erik Spoelstra has on the roster. The defense has been excellent, and the team has the No. 5 net rating in the conference but sits barely over .500 and two games out of the No. 6 seed. It feels like there really isn't another level for this team to hit as currently constructed. But maybe Spoelstra and the team will prove us wrong.

Play-In Targets

Three of the teams in the above tiers will fall into the play-in, their hopes of an outright playoff spot dashed. So will five of these six teams, including all three Western teams. The tanking contagion means there is essentially one race left for a play-in spot with about a third of the season left. Hmph.

Warriors (29-26): Golden State likely sees itself one tier up, among the teams chasing a top-6 seed, especially since the team's potentially getting Stephen Curry back and Kristaps Porzingis available this week. But the Warriors are 4.5 games out of a playoff spot with Phoenix in their way, and without Jimmy Butler the likelihood that Golden State will be five games better than the Lakers, Wolves or Rockets and three games better than the Suns over 27 games is ... far-fetched. So it's back to the play-in for Golden State.

Blazers (27-29): Portland will finish around .500, which is a major achievement after four straight mediocre seasons. Unless they catch Golden State, the Blazers will be positioned as a lower seed in the play-in tournament, which will require two wins to make the postseason. Anything can happen in the play-in, and that second game could be against the Warriors, Lakers or Suns, who are vulnerable in different ways. But then the "prize" is a series against the Thunder. It'd be a wonderful building block for Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Shaedon Sharpe, but it'd also almost assuredly be a bloodbath.

Hornets (26-29): Charlotte was the hottest team in the league leading into the break, but they are almost assuredly too far back to claim a top-6 seed in the East. If Philly (the current No. 6) were to finish at the same pace they're on now, putting them at 46-36, Charlotte would need to go 21-6 to pass them. And if the Hornets do that after recently winning nine straight games, the East might have a real problem on their hands. If the Magic and Heat end up in the play-in, though, one of those teams should really fear getting knocked in the teeth by Charlotte. And speaking of teeth getting knocked out, a prospective Hornets vs. Pistons first-round series has dentists and league office disciplinarians salivating.

Clippers (26-28): The Clippers traded James Harden and Ivica Zubac for an injured Darius Garland and a pre-agency Bennedict Mathurin. That is a signal that the team doesn't think it can make a run in the West. However, Kawhi Leonard is still on a historic heater and no one else in the West wants to be in the play-in. Seriously: Los Angeles could not lose its way out of the play-in if it tried. And since the Clips don't own their pick, they won't try. I'm very curious how L.A. will approach the stretch run with Kawhi and Garland's availability, and with playing time for the younger players on the roster more broadly.

Hawks (26-30): In a stunning turn of events, the Hawks are in position to be in the play-in ...

Bucks (23-30): ... unless they get caught by the stormin' Milwaukee Bucks! We should all cheer on the Bucks. They have an incentive to tank out and land the best pick they can in a rare year in which they control their draft (to a certain degree; there's a swap involving New Orleans and Atlanta that still makes it advantageous for the Bucks to be bad). But they are not doing it because the front office apparently believes it can convince Giannis Antetokounmpo to hold off on a trade request and perhaps even sign another extension this summer. Giannis has been more wishy-washy than ever this season about his future, but the Bucks made some marginal roster moves to improve the team and signed Cam Thomas for the remainder of the season. They want to win! How refreshing. Milwaukee is 1.5 games out of the play-in and has long odds to make the playoffs given how well Charlotte is playing and how much better even Orlando and Miami have been this year. But if Giannis is on the court, with single-game elimination: HMM.

Bad But Not Tanking

Pelicans (15-41): New Orleans could very well finish with the worst record in the league. They are awful. The guard play: simply atrocious. Derik Queen is much less effective when playing with Zion Williamson, the team doesn't really do anything except halfcourt lobs well, they are playing hard but stuck in place. But since there's no incentive to lose due to their draft situation, they exist in a different tier than the teams that follow.

Tanking

In honor of my decree that I wasn't really going to write about tanking again today, I will nominate the most interesting player who could conceivably play 48 minutes in a game their team is trying to lose. Players who have already played 48 minutes in a game their team is trying to lose are not eligible. Sorry, Isaiah Collier.

Bulls (24-31): Patrick Williams. Only three more years left on his contract!

Grizzlies (20-33): Cam Spencer. Lacrosse players have endurance. We would also accept Walter Clayton Jr.

Mavericks (19-35): Jeremiah Robinson-Earl.

Jazz (18-38): Cody Williams already has a 40-minute game under his belt this season. Let's try 48. I believe Vince Williams Jr. has one in him, too.

Nets (15-38): DANNY WOLF.

Pacers (15-40): Johnny Furphy, unfortunately, suffered a season-ending ACL tear before the break. Best wishes. So the answer here is either 26-year-old two-way rookie Ethan Thompson, who already has five starts under his belt, or Jay Huff.

Wizards (14-39): Either 33-year-old Anthony Gill or, to be a bit rude, D'Angelo Russell. Let's see if we can get D'Lo another 50-point game in the NBA on the final game of the season. (Yes, he had one during that cursed Warriors season without Steph or Klay.)

Kings (12-44): RUSSELL WESTBROOK. In fact, let him play 48 every game remaining and then hang his jersey in the rafters. At least he plays hard and is incredibly entertaining. There are worse things atrocious teams can give their fans! Like, almost everything else on this roster.

Alright, that's Wednesday's newsletter. Coming up on Thursday: tanking? No, not tanking. Well, probably not. We'll see.

Be excellent to each other.