The Pistons' deeeeee-flating playoff performance, explained

The Pistons lose again. Is this just an abnormally competent No. 8 seed, or are there now legitimate concerns about the structure of the East's No. 1? Plus: good night sweet Suns and the Nuggets get one.

Good morning. Let's basketball.

Since it's been a while since the Detroit Pistons have won a playoff series, and it looks like that streak will continue, let's throw it back with a blog post style I kinda miss. A par-baked structure, completely variable length, and it doesn't require having a thesis? Sign me up!

Wait, the Pistons lost again?

Yep, the Magic beat the Pistons 94-88 on Monday. Orlando is up 3-1 in the series and can clinch the series on Wednesday.

How is this happening?! Detroit won 60 games in the regular season and the Magic were one of the most disappointing teams in the league.

The Pistons dominated in the regular season primarily on the basis of their No. 2 ranked defense, which has absolutely held up in this series: Detroit has the second best defensive rating in the postseason. Unfortunately, Orlando has the best. The Pistons' offense, which finished No. 9 in the regular season, has been atrocious this series. Detroit is shooting 27.5% from deep through four games. They were about league-average in the regular season; there are five Pistons shooting at least two threes per game in the series, and only one (Duncan Robinson) is shooting better than 29%.

Is Orlando's defense that good?

The Magic have had one of the league's best defenses for the last few years, though they were disappointing this season (outside the top 10). Injuries played a significant role in that, and Jonathan Isaac is still out. But yes, Orlando's defense is having a major impact.

Is it just the cold shooting from three?

Not at all. Cade's turnovers are totally out of control. There's just no scoring punch outside of him. Jalen Duren, who will likely be named to an All-NBA team after averaging 19.5 points per game on 65% shooting in the regular season, has been totally neutralized on offense by Orlando. The Magic have size to throw at him, and have been daring him to make decisions more than he appears comfortable. He's averaging 9.8 points per game on 47% shooting after Game 4 and has 9 assists and 12 turnovers for the series. Also, Luke Walton is on the Detroit coaching staff. I just want to make sure everyone is aware of that as a potential cause of distress here.

Wait, go back to Duren. Do you have a convenient video clip that illustrates how the Magic are treating Duren in this series?

Why yes, courtesy of journeyman Jamal Cain in Monday's game.

Holy s--t.

Yeah. It's been that kind of series for Duren and the Pistons.

What about the Magic offense?

What are you talking about?

How is the Magic offense pulling this off?

Pulling what off?

Leading the series 3-1?

Oh, the Orlando offense has almost nothing to do with that. Check out the series shot charts for both teams.

Uh, that seems bad.

Yeah. The two teams combined to score 14 points in the final six minutes of the game. The equivalent of a full game final score of, like, 58-54.

Yikes.

Yeah. Orlando's offense has been pretty bad outside of Desmond Bane. The Magic are shooting even worse than Detroit overall, with a 45% effective field goal percentage and 50% True Shooting percentage, both of which would have been a couple standard deviations worse than the Nets and Kings this season. Paolo Banchero is shooting 37% from the floor and 27% from deep. Franz Wagner has hit three triples all series. Jalen Suggs is taking damn near 10 threes per game ... and shooting 26% on them. All three have hit some timely shots and are playing hard on defense, but the most consistent offense has been Banchero getting to the line or the Magic spraying to Desmond Bane. He's shooting 44% from deep on volume. Otherwise, the 3-1 series lead is all about Orlando and Reality shredding Detroit's offense.

Do the Pistons have any hope?

Cade is clearly the best individual player in the series, and most of these games have been competitive late. We have seen Orlando snatch defeat out of the claws of victory plenty of times this season; it would almost be fitting for them to go up 3-1 and collapse. Shooting can turn on a whim; while that applies to both teams, Detroit certainly has a better track record of getting results on that end. And Jalen Duren is not a punk, and has the opportunity to show that in a high-impact way going forward. So yes, there's still hope. But Orlando has three tries to shut that down once. Coming back from down 3-1 is really hard, even with two of the games at home.

Wait, is it possible we get a Magic vs. Raptors series with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line?

That's right. After collapsing against the left-for-dead Sixers in the play-in, the Orlando Magic might have a clean path to the Eastern Conference Finals. Hell, if things break right, they might even get to face the rival Atlanta Hawks there!

...

The Eastern Conference is back!

Death, Taxes and OKC Sweeping the First Round

Thunder 131, Suns 122 (OKC wins 4-0)

Oklahoma City took care of business, as they always seem to do. That's three straight years with a convincing first round sweep for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made light work of Phoenix's solid defense again. He's just spectacular in his competence.