Tiers of the West, 2026-27 edition

This isn't a preview, these aren't predictions. But where exactly do the general groupings between West teams sit right a month out from preseason?

Good morning. I, too, had to be carried away from the rubble by two hulking firemen. What are the odds? Let's basketball.

The NBA offseason is mostly resolved, with apologies to Jalen Duren, the Kawhi Leonard trade and a slew of coming (or not) extensions. The big roster news on Tuesday was the Pelicans cutting salary by trading Jordan Hawkins, Micah Peavey and seconds to the Grizzlies for A.J. Johnson and 41-year-old Taj Gibson. We're good! All done.

First, a review. Here's what the preseason tiers for the West looked like last season.

MAJOR CONTENDERS: Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Rockets

MINOR CONTENDERS: Lakers, Clippers

PLAYOFF MIX: Warriors, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Spurs

PLAY-IN MIX: Kings, Pelicans, Blazers, Suns

TANK TIME: Jazz

The Nuggets, Wolves, Rockets, Lakers, Warriors, Kings and Pelicans should have been one tier lower. The Clippers, Mavericks and Grizzlies should have been two tiers lower. The Spurs should have been two tiers higher. The Thunder, Blazers, Suns and Jazz were in the appropriate tiers. Is four out of 15 good? My vote is yes.

With that in mind – that I overrated the potential of 10 teams last season – let's dig in.

TIER 1: MAJOR CONTENDERS

Oklahoma City Thunder
Dominant regular season squad and playoff power who was down two key players and still took a scintillating Spurs team to seven. This is a minor transition year with Lu Dort gone and Cason Wallace elevated to a larger role. But of course this team is a true blue contender.

San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs got shot out of a cannon to the top of the standings last season, and figure to stay up there so long as Nombre Un stays upright. An absolute contender from the jump.

TIER 2: MINOR CONTENDERS

Denver Nuggets
This is a key decisions I'm making this year, in the West at least: I do not believe in single-team contender tiers, which is why I had three more teams with OKC before last season. Too much can happen in an NBA campaign to believe there is only a single major contender in a conference in September or October. Well, the Thunder have the Spurs now. Problem solved. That allows me to be slightly more circumspect about teams like Denver, who continue to lose depth (not just Peyton Watson – Tim Hardaway Jr. was huge for them!).

L.A. Lakers
It simply not in my nature to doubt the Lakers. Call it an old habit, or latent trauma. The team did win a series last spring, albeit on the back of an old G.O.A.T. no longer in the laundry. Where is the cut-off for Minor Contender for me? I'd mark it as a legitimate path to the conference finals. Of course, only two teams actually make it to the conference finals. And by the end of last season, L.A. had no legitimate path to the conference finals (the Thunder swept the Lakers with a +16 margin ... per game), which is why in my review I downgraded them to a Playoff Mix team. But the team is now more fully built around Luka Doncic, one supposes, and we've seen him carry a squad to the conference finals and the Finals before. This looks like respect but it's more like fear. (I could be swayed that the Lakers belong one tier down.)

TIER 3: PLAYOFF MIX

Houston Rockets
I discussed the Rockets in the context of Amen Thompson's rookie extension and the general shakiness around Houston's core of young talent. I do think getting Fred VanVleet back is a huge help – the team won 52 games without a functional point guard that Ime Udoka trusted at all – and it's interesting that there was little to no buzz around moving Kevin Durant this summer, which is either an indicator that the Rockets' front office is being overly optimistic about bygones or that things are actually fine in the locker room. I could be swayed that the Rockets actually belong one tier higher.

Minnesota Timberwolves
The same applies to the Wolves, but I need to see it – all of it, the LaMelo Ball fit, the Jonathan Kuminga rollercoaster, the Rudy Gobert aging process – before buying in. Minnesota won 49 games and a playoff series against a better team last year, and have had real playoff success. But outside of Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Chris Finch, the context is different. Those four pieces are pretty important, but so is the other stuff.

You may notice that I have six teams in the three top tiers, and six West teams will make the playoffs outright. I'm not really allowing for much wiggle room here. Which brings us to ...

TIER 4: PLAY-IN MIX

Portland Trail Blazers
This is another team that could be bumped up after a surprisingly competent 2025-26 season and an interesting offseason, getting Damian Lillard back in a uniform after a season on ice and bringing in Ja Morant. One wonders if the front office is aware that both play the same position, and functionally share a position with the Blazers' second-best player from 2025-26 (Jrue Holiday) and functionally share a role with the Blazers' best player from 2025-26 (Deni Avdija). Alas, at least there's a first-time head coach on a make-good contract (Micah Nori) to sort it all out.

Phoenix Suns
The Suns were similarly surprisingly competent last season. There just doesn't seem to be a ton of upside potential here without a star turn for Mark Williams or Khaman Maluach. The case to boost Phoenix into the Playoff Mix tier is that Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green play more games than last season? No one will be caught off-guard by the Suns' energy like they were for a couple months last year. Also, Miles Bridges is not a valuable NBA player! This is not just anti-abuser bias. He's basketball junk food!

Golden State Warriors
Fingers crossed Kristaps Porzingis stays healthy (he has averaged 48 games per season on his career), Stephen Curry's 2025-26 ankle injuries are gone and ... 36-year-old Jimmy Butler returns in good form midseason from a torn ACL. Through Curry, Draymond Green and sheer will, much is possible. Much should not be expected, though.

Utah Jazz
I played with elevating the Jazz a tier, and will likely regret not doing so. What held me back? The youth of the backcourt. Keyonte George had an incredible breakout but did it for a team not interested in winning. The context is different now. Darryn Peterson is a rookie. We know how things usually go for ball-dominant rookie guards. I also can't decide whether I like Utah's depth around the two guards, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jusuf Nurkic, Kyle Filipkowski, Ace Bailey, Josh Okogie, Isaiah Collier, Jaxson Hayes, Josh Green, Svi Mykhailiuk, MO BAMBA?!). I think I like it? But I don't know? The Utah Jazz!

Dallas Mavericks
I've seen some buzz from smart analysts about the Mavericks getting into the playoff mix, and while it's certainly possible with Kyrie Irving back and little to no trade buzz percolating, it feels like a roster in flux around Cooper Flagg. It's a lot of decent to good veterans who ... mostly have similar frontcourt roles (Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Santi Aldama, Caleb Martin). The guard depth feels very shaky, and this really looks more like a pile of trade assets than a team. At least we know Jason Kidd is a master organizer of roles and personalities, right?

TIER 5: TANK TIME

Sacramento Kings
This is almost as easy a call as the Thunder and Spurs as major contenders. I'm trying to imagine what would have to happen for a shocking turn toward competence, like the 2023-24 Jazz (who started 26-26 and then ripped the plug out of the wall to finish 5-25 down the stretch) or the long-lost 2013-14 Suns (one of the weirdest good teams in memory; please ignore where I complement Jeff Hornacek's coaching in that piece, I was young [not that young]). Here's where I landed: Doug Christie would need to be body-snatched with a cyrogenically frozen Red Auerbach. I think that might do it.

Memphis Grizzlies
This is another team getting a little buzz about play-in potential that I'm not buying at this stage. Very nice young players with a whole lot of question marks, and a best player who will be a rookie. It's just not a recipe for lots of success. Ty Jerome could change my mind.

New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans barely changed the roster at all and brought in a new head coach (Jamahl Mosley) who is totally competent (like both coaches New Orleans had last year) but whose knock is an ability to organize an effective offense around an odd big man. Huh. Can't see why that would be a problem here.

L.A. Clippers
This assumes the Kawhi trade goes through. Hell, let's say this remains valid even if the Raptors back out and try to get the Clippers, who absolutely cannot keep Kawhi, to make the trade for one pick. That'd be hilarious, actually. And Trent Redden, believed to be the person in charge while Lawrence Frank and Steve Ballmer are suspended, doesn't even have to ask permission! He can consult Ty Lue, Billy Crystal and Chuck the Condor. In any case, this team could be frisky but has limited immediate upside. I'd be surprised to see them competing for a play-in spot.

There we have it: the tiers of the West as of early September. We'll revisit a month into the season to see if anyone needs to be moved early. Next Wednesday: Tiers of the East.

Be excellent to each other.