The Bucks will never give up

Good morning. Milwaukee signed Myles Turner to a long-term deal ... but had to waive and stretch Damian Lillard to do it. What's this mean for the future of the club? Let's basketball.

Tom Ziller

02 Jul 2025 — 6 min read

Light in the Forest; Albert Bierstadt; 1870s

Good morning. Milwaukee signed Myles Turner to a long-term deal ... but had to waive and stretch Damian Lillard to do it. What's this mean for the future of the club? Let's basketball.

November 2020. The bubble championship had just been awarded to the Lakers. Giannis Antetokounmpo has won two straight MVP awards and added a Defensive Player of the Year trophy to the mantle. The Bucks had made the conference finals in 2019, but were slugged by the Heat in the bubble's second round. Giannis is eligible for an extension to keep him in Milwaukee through his prime.

Desperation time for the Bucks. So they trade two future firsts and two future pick swaps to the Pelicans for Jrue Holiday. (The picks and one of the swaps remain outstanding.) Giannis signed an extension a month later. The Bucks won the next championship. The desperation paid off almost immediately.

September 2023. The Nuggets, who have the new best player in the world, have just won the championship. Giannis has finished third in the past two MVP races and is now 28. The Bucks had damn near made the conference finals in 2022 but were slugged by the Heat in the first round in 2023. Giannis is again eligible for an extension to keep him in Milwaukee through at least 2027.

Desperation time for the Bucks. So they trade Holiday, a future first and two future pick swaps to the Blazers for Damian Lillard. (All three draft assets remain outstanding.) Giannis signed an extension a month later.

July 2025. The previous desperation play kept Giannis in town, but the Bucks did not win a playoff series in the next two seasons with Antetokounmpo and Lillard facing injuries. Lillard, in fact, will miss the entire 2025-26 season. There is consistent scuttlebutt that the Bucks should look at the trade market for Giannis, and some indication that Antetokounmpo himself might be open to asking Milwaukee to consider trading him. However, Giannis never comes out and says he wants a fresh start. He appears to remain committed to the Bucks despite their situation.

Desperation time for the Bucks. So they sign free agent Myles Turner to a 4-year, $107 million deal. To do so under cap rules, they waive and stretch Lillard, who had $112 million remaining over two years. Lillard's salary will now be dead cap space, $22 million per year through 2029-30.

Now we wait to see how Giannis reacts, and how the Bucks do.

The result of all this desperation is that the Bucks do not have the exclusive rights to their next five first-round draft picks (2027 and 2029 picks have been traded and there are pick swap options looming over their 2026, 2028 and 2030 picks) and they have a cap that is roughly $22 million tighter than that of any other team for the next five seasons.

And I get it.

The desperation moves made by GM Jon Horst, who was extended in the spring, were all designed to [a] keep Giannis happy by [b] keeping the Bucks competitive. Take the second part first: since Horst's first desperation trade the Bucks have finished first in the standings once, third three times and fifth once. They won the franchise's first title in 50 years. Yes, they've only won a single playoff series since the title. But the Bucks have been competitive, flat out. And that is largely because of [a].

The single greatest indicator of a team's likelihood of success throughout the history of the NBA is whether they have one of the very best players in the league. There are exceptions, like the 2024 Pacers, who were a game away from the ultimate glory. And there are all-time greats who do not find the ultimate team success. There are no guarantees in this league. But if you want to win, the best way to do so is to have a tippy-top superstar in your employ. Giannis hasn't been the best player in the world for several years now. But he remains awful close to the top, no worse than the third best player alive as I see it. He's still just 30 years old; given the aging curves we've seen from recent superstars, he could have another five years at something like this level. (Steph Curry was 34 when he led the Warriors to the 2022 title. LeBron was 35 in 2020 when he last won Finals MVP.)

Yes, there is significant downside risk for the Bucks here. Giannis could tell the team at any point that he's more interested in competing for titles than finishing his career as a lifelong Buck, and Milwaukee would be compelled to trade him without control of its own path to a rebuild and with a busted cap sheet due to the Dame stretch. This could go really badly.

But there is also upside. The Bucks have a chance every year Giannis suits up, and the East is totally battered. The 2025-26 season, in fact, might be a perfect opportunity for Milwaukee to rise back up with Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton out. Nabbing Turner, which expensive in terms of opportunity cost, doesn't just help the Bucks – it hurts the team that's knocked them out of the past two postseasons beyond the Haliburton-less '26 campaign.

Some anonymous GM told ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Jamal Collier that this move is "reckless." That's bulls--t. Horst and the Bucks absolutely grasp the danger involved. They have understood the danger every time they have made one of these desperation moves to get better or stay competitive or keep Giannis happy. The first one paid off big-time. The second did not. (And I'd be real curious if the anonymous GMs in question have won titles.)

Stakes Is High, and as long as that is understood by all the parties involved, kudos to Horst and the Bucks for being bold and making a(nother) run at it. Maybe it will pay off like the Jrue trade. Maybe it will be a disaster like the Dame trade. Maybe it will leave the Bucks in a much, much worse position than they were already in. We won't know until we know.

Credit be to the teams working outside the blueprint. Credit be to the teams willing to prioritize being competitive now at significant risk to their reputations.

Speaking of Which

Topic for another day, but I hate this for the Pacers. You get 48 minutes from an NBA championship, watch your star player go down (which destroys your immediate-term title hopes for next season) and decide to punt on a perfect-fit starting center over luxury tax implications? It's not like Indiana is in repeater tax hell like Boston or is staring down some world-historic payroll like, uh, Boston.

Indiana could salvage this with a back-up plan that remains shrouded. Perhaps they have a younger version of Turner in mind in time for Haliburton's return. But letting a key starter walk to a rival over a few million a year nine days after Game 7 of the Finals, when you have a team all-in on camaraderie and togetherness and constant fight?

That's way more depressing a reality than the team going for broke against significant odds.

More Moves

Duncan Robinson in a sign-and-trade to the Pistons for $16 million a year. Hmm. Malik Beasley replacement? Simone Fontecchio heads to Miami.

Big extension for Jakob Poeltl in Toronto. I had thought he might be an interesting fit for the Lakers.

The Kings actually gave Dennis Schroder a tiny bit more money than previously reported, and to do so moved Jonas Valanciunas to Denver for Dario Saric (bleh) and signed Drew Eubanks (big bleh). But the Schroder pick-up is huge for Sacramento, and Trey Lyles has been the most useful back-up center the team's had, so as long as Domantas Sabonis stays healthy the frontcourt should be somewhat OKish.

The Knicks signed Guerschon Yabusele and Jordan Clarkson. It sounds like they may also hire Mike Brown. Good stuff. Might pick them to win the conference.

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