The Draymond Green question rises again

Leave the drama aside. The Warriors offense isn't functional with Green running it these days. Are we getting closer to the endgame here?

Good morning. Let's basketball.

The Warriors, hosting the Magic with a chance to get back to .500 on the season, were in a tight battle early in the third quarter. Draymond Green committed a pretty careless turnover, Quinten Post committed a take foul to stop the break and after Orlando scored the free throw and a bucket, Steve Kerr called time. Here's what happened in that timeout.

According to both Kerr and Green, Draymond left of his own volition. He was not sent to the locker room. Once Green left the bench, Kerr said he determined he wouldn't re-enter the game. Green did rejoin the bench later, and said he was not offended that he never came back in.

Kerr, Green and especially Stephen Curry all downplayed the incident after the game. Green was, for what it's worth, the least combative I can remember him being in a post-game press availability following some dramatic on-court incident. (I know some may roll their eyes at this, but he really does deserve credit for making himself availability to the media. Many players would not do that after this incident.)

Part of the reason everyone likely felt so nonplussed afterward: Golden State finished the quarter on a 23-10 run to take control and won running away. The Warriors' offense became totally unstuck in the second half against a strong opposing defense, and Golden State's defense held up without Green. Maybe some of it was just circumstance – Curry hit like six straight shots as soon as Green left the court, Orlando's offense isn't great and the Magic have been on the road for two weeks – but it's notable that against a good opponent, the Warriors didn't really miss a beat with Green gone.

It really does raise the question as to whether the Warriors need Draymond Green anymore.

That question depends in part on what you think the Warriors are capable of doing. I'm skeptical. They won a round against a green opponent last season, but injuries derailed any hope of advancing further. We'll see what they get for Jonathan Kuminga, and whether the front office can sneak into conversations for any more interesting available players out there. But right now, based on the results to date and the fact that this is one of the older cores in the league, the Warriors appear to be a play-in team. The top six in the West is rather solid, barring a major injury. It's hard to imagine the Warriors beating any of those six teams at relative full-strength in a best-of-7 series this season.

Curry truly looks like he could play forever. The Warriors might have 3-4 more seasons of a high-level, All-NBA caliber Curry, which is much more than anyone had any right to expect. Butler has fit in reasonably well with everyone except Kuminga, and even there, I tend to think that's a Kerr issue more than an actual on-court issue.

On the court, Green increasingly looks like the sore thumb.

The defense is still there, and that's important. Draymond finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, and from what I've seen remains effective on that end at age 35. The Warriors have the No. 3 defense in the league. This is a huge victory for Golden State to still be this good on that end a decade past Green's emergence as a generational defender. And yet, the offensive fit is a total mess and the Warriors have other good-to-great defenders when Green's unavailable.

Gary Payton II might very well be the swing player of the Warriors' 2020s existence. He was critical in the 2022 title run, and his absence for most of 2022-23 followed by injuries in 2023-24 hurt Golden State's depth considerably. Butler is aging but can still defend at a high level, taking tough assignments when necessary. It appears Al Horford is a lost cause, but De'Anthony Melton has put together a nice profile coming off the bench. Quinten Post isn't exactly Andrew Bogut out there, but he provides some resistance.

The question is whether Green's defense is worth the obvious damage he's doing to the Warriors' pitiful offense.

Golden State is No. 20 in offense this season after finishing No. 16 last year. Green's been highly inefficient the last couple of seasons despite his limited offensive role. Consider this: Draymond is averaging three 2-point attempts per game. He's taking (open) threes and missing them (32.7% from deep), and getting just about nothing inside the arc and nothing from the line. Moreover, his assists are down and his turnovers are up. Green is No. 2 in turnovers per 36 minutes this season (behind Cole Anthony) and No. 2 in turnover rate (behind Jericho Sims, go Bucks!). The problem with the turnovers is that Green isn't really creating any efficient offense for himself or much for his teammates. Luka Doncic, for example, is No. 3 in turnovers per 36. For those 4.1 turnovers per 36 minutes Luka is committing, the Lakers are getting 33.6 points and 8.6 assists. For Green's 4.2 turnovers per 36, the Warriors are getting 10.8 points and 6.8 assists. While Green is No. 2 in turnovers per 36, he's No. 29 in assists per 36 and No. 232 (out of 258 qualifying players) in points per 36.

The Warriors' offense isn't all Green's fault, but his limitations are magnified in his role. Golden State is No. 27 in turnover rate, a classic Warriors problem that is tied closely to Green and Curry's carelessness. Green isn't at all an offensive threat, so that impacts the Warriors' low rankings in free throw rate (No. 20) and shooting (No. 17). Green is, at this point, essentially Rudy Gobert: an elite defender who severely limits his team's offense. Instead of Gobert's occasional lob dunks, Green gets occasional assists.

Drama comes and goes with Draymond in the locker room. The Warriors always seem to find a way to get over it, even when it costs them a championship (2016) or a legendary teammate (Kevin Durant) or a young prospect (Jordan Poole). That's not what is most likely to end Green's memorable and (like it or not) historic tenure with the Warriors. This offensive nightmare is untenable, though, and it wouldn't be shocking to see Golden State make necessary adjustments to give themselves a chance to score enough points, even if that means reducing Green's role further or trading him for some scoring help.

While I Was Out

Missing Monday's newsletter means I missed recapping a whole weekend of action. The important things to note:

• The Wolves beat the Thunder!
• The Cavaliers lost to the Bulls AGAIN
• The Hawks and Bulls had a game finish 152-150 in regulation
• Kevin Durant went full troll as the Rockets beat the Nuggets in Denver
• Keyonte George hit a 4-point play to put the Jazz up one with seconds left ... and got overshadowed by Desmond Bane
• Jalen Brunson lit up the Heat (again)
• Victor Wembanyama is still coming off the bench
• The Beam was lit off a Dennis Schroder game-winner against the Rockets

I think that covers it.

Scores

Hornets 132, Cavaliers 139 – A cathartic explosion for the somewhat beleaguered Cleveland offense. No need to dwell on the fact that they gave up 132 to Charlotte, right? Darius Garland is starting to come around. With Donovan Mitchell playing the best basketball of his career, having those two on the same wavelength might be enough most nights.

This is one of the funnier clips I've seen this season. Thomas Bryant (a center) scores over Kon Knueppel (a wing), does the "too small" celebration and trips over his own feet.

Pacers 95, Celtics 103 – Jaylen Brown has scored 30+ in seven straight games. This is why, despite their teardown last offseason, I think the Celtics remain a serious threat to Thundarian hegemony. Brown and Jayson Tatum alone are a huge force to be reckoned with.

Mavericks 113, Pelicans 119 – New Orleans can't lose! Zion Williamson with 24-9-3 off the bench. Derik Queen with 19-10-6 as a starter. Queen was +8 in 21 minutes with Z on the floor and +5 in the 13 minutes they shared. Zion was -3 in his 12 minutes without DQ. James Borrego went two minutes without either on the floor (end of the third). The Pels were -4. We might have something here.

35-17 in the loss for Anthony Davis. Dallas remains hovering just outside the West play-in.

Jazz 112, Nuggets 135 – Denver just cruising (for the most part) without two starters is pretty incredible. David Adelman deserves some Coach of the Year consideration.

Grizzlies 103, Thunder 119 – That makes 100 consecutive 20-point performances for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That metronomic consistency in absolutely unreal. A total throwback player, too. He would have been my favorite player not named Mitch Richmond in the '90s.

Magic 97, Warriors 120

Pistons 110, Blazers 102 – Portland put a scare into Detroit late, but the Pistons are professionals now. They know how to win games. And they clinched being No. 1 in the standings on Christmas Day. Here's to hoping lots of kids in Michigan open up Cunningham or Duren jerseys on Thursday morning.

Portland's Sidy Cissoko had 13 free throw attempts. All those fouls drawn may be legitimate. Nonetheless, if I were the commissioner, any time a player the caliber and role of Sidy Cissoko got 13 free throw attempts in a game, there would be a full-blown investigation into how the NBA is letting this happen.

Speaking of Investigations ...

This Ben Taylor video on superpowered offenses on Thinking Basketball is well worth a watch. Taylor tracks the continued offensive explosion against trends in officials allowing offensive players to create contact with defenders, travel at will and receive super illegal screens.

Schedule

We have 28 teams in action on Christmas Eve Eve. (Everyone's off on Wednesday before Thursday's pentupleheader.) All times Eastern.

Wizards at Hornets, 7
Nets at Sixers, 7
Bulls at Hawks, 7:30
Pelicans at Cavaliers, 7:30
Bucks at Pacers, 7:30
Raptors at Heat, 7:30
Nuggets at Mavericks, 8, Peacock for all/NBC for some
Knicks at Timberwolves, 8
Thunder at Spurs, 8:30
Lakers at Suns, 9
Grizzlies at Jazz, 9
Magic at Blazers, 10
Pistons at Kings, 10
Rockets at Clippers, 10:30, Peacock for all/NBC for some

Alright, that was a newsletter. Be excellent to each other.