Joel's revenge, Victor's triumph

The Sixers stun the Celtics late to stay alive while the Spurs slam the door shut on the Blazers. Plus: the Knicks look fabulous all of a sudden and we have an apparent lottery reform path.

Good morning. Let's basketball.

See Appendix J

Sixers 113, Celtics 97 (BOS leads 3-2)

Joel Embiid's Game 4 return to action less than three weeks after an appendectomy seemed to totally disrupt what had worked for the Sixers in Game 3, and when the Celtics blew out Philadelphia, it seemed like an omen for the series. And then Game 5 happened in Boston, and Joel Embiid – still less than three weeks out from major abdominal surgery – was the best player on the floor.

He stopped taking threes after missing 'em all, and dominated whoever Boston threw at him. He's a top-5 mid-range shooter with an uncontestable release point, and while the Celtics still tried to engage him in action to capitalize on his limited mobility, Boston couldn't make anything late. The C's were 3/22 from the floor in the fourth.

We've seen Embiid's peak come and go. He won that single MVP, but still hasn't had a signature postseason run, in part due to some epic Philadelphia collapses (in which he holds some culpability) and in part due to some bizarre health issues. Winning two more against a team as solid as Boston is a huge challenge, and feels deeply unlikely. But you love to see someone rewrite a script in real-time. And readers know I'm partial to Joel, so this is a lovely twist for my personal fandom. What a throwback performance.

Shout out also to Paul George, who has been excellent in his role this whole series. Pretty amazing career shift on the fly.

Oh, We're Dealing With These Knicks Now

Hawks 97, Knicks 126 (NYK leads 3-2)

There have been stretches this season where the Knicks looked like a legitimate contender for best team in the East, and a true title contender. That's why I have twice picked the Knicks as the eventual champion! I'm not a complete idiot, just a little gullible when it comes to potential epic narratives, and a little resistant toward chalk. But it's nice to be vindicated now and even, even if briefly.

Watching Jalen Brunson absolutely shred every great defender Atlanta threw at him on Tuesday night was just what my predictive ego needed.

Some of these moves are outrageous. He's freezing good defenders in space and navigating around the board like he's a knight on a chess board. The Hawks have a number of players with deep postseason resumés, and some players with short CVs. Brunson's been here and been deep in the playoffs, and has a knack for delivering what's needed when needed. And damn did he do that in Game 5.

Do the Knicks have the best offense in the bracket? Sometimes it sure looks like it!

Genesis

Blazers 95, Spurs 114 (SAS wins 4-1)

San Antonio was not particularly interested in messing around in a close-out game.

The Spurs were hot from the jump and the Blazers couldn't get anything going beyond Deni Avdija's typical stuff and a bit of Robert Williams III action. Portland did find a little something in the fourth with a weird lineup featuring Sidy Cissoko and Vit Krecji – the Blazers' first eight shots of the fourth were threes, and they made five of them to get within single digits. But De'Aaron Fox hit another avalanche of shots and then Victor Wembanyama, with his father Felix in the crowd watching, reminded the Blazers why they stopped coming into the paint.

I've watched those two blocks a dozen times already. I've got 100 more in me. The second one on Toumani Camara is maybe more impressive technically – a total smother job – but the San Antonio crowd has learned to despise Deni Avdija and Wembanyama almost never goes for the big spike-it-out-of-play Dwight Howard style blocks. That one seemed to be a gift to the fans ... and for Stephon Castle ... and for Fox, who got the Deni treatment in Game 5.

Deni availed himself fine in the box score in his first playoff series, but I don't think he's very popular outside of Portland at this point.

San Antonio, meanwhile, heads off to the second round, where they will face either the injury-addled Timberwolves or a comeback-completing Nuggets. And of course, the only other team to have advanced to the second round – Oklahoma City – looms in the distance.

The Spurs' era may very well be upon us.

Here's To Mediocrity!

ESPN's Shams Charania reports on the entirely new concept the NBA is now pushing forward as its tanking reform ahead of next season: the 3-2-1 rule. Read the piece for the narrative explanation. Here's how I understand it.

Reverse Standings

1. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
2. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
3. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 12
4. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
5. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
6. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
7. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
8. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
9. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
10. 8.1% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
11. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
12. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
13. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
14. 5.4% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
15. (7/8 game loser) 2.7% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16
16. (7/8 game loser) 2.7% chance at No. 1, floor is No. 16

The winners of the 7/8 games in the Play-In Tournament aren't included in the lottery. The only chance for a playoff team to win a high lottery pick with their own selection (not one acquired via trade) is to end up as a No. 8 seed (either by losing 7/8 or advancing as a 9/10).

Other stipulations: you can't win No. 1 two years in a row (which will improve the odds for the other teams in the mix) and you can't be in the top five for three consecutive years. You also can't protect picks No. 12-15 under these rules. All picks would be drawn, not just the top four, which means any teams in the lottery can win any pick given the stipulations above.

How does this impact the worst tanking activities?

• It would eliminate the pure race to the bottom since the worst three teams are penalized. (The NBA is apparently calling this "the relegation zone," which doesn't really make sense. Let's brainstorm on this. The Zone of Shame?) This might actually create the opposite of the Tank-Offs we've seen in recent years: we'll get games between two awful teams that both are desperately trying to win. We might see fewer stars on awful teams sit the rest of the season. We might see real bad teams trade for viable or even good players to try to crawl out of the bottom three. This is good.
• There is a cliff between the best teams out of the play-in and the worst play-in teams. The flattened odds actually make it seem more likely that teams will opt out of the play-in around midseason like they did this year. The incentive will actually be almost three times stronger to do so. So we might end up with two clearer tiers of teams (good and bad) as more mid-tier clubs opt for the lotto. This is bad.
• There is a scenario in which it is advisable for teams to tank the 7/8 play-in game, which would be deeply embarrassing for the league and should be punishable by Draft Death Penalty. This is real bad.
• Pick protection tomfoolery will go away by the lottery deciding all 16 picks. You won't be able to guarantee you keep, say, a top-8 protected by finishing fourth worst. This is a big deal that could have been solved other ways. But it is solved here. This is good.
• Institutional tanks could become longer if bad teams strike out on high picks and can't build strong player bases. This is bad.

There are surely some unintended consequences involved that will unfurl if the reforms are approved. I'm of the mind that something had to be done, and this is actually much more than the inconsequential tweak I expected. This is a pretty big change, even though it falls short of Adam Silver's vow to completely changing the incentives. There's still an incentive to be bad. The difference is in just how bad teams are incentivized to be.

Schedule

The final three Games 5 are here. Two close-out opportunities, either of which could throw competitive franchises into summer crises. Any guesses on how many of the six teams hits 110 points? All times Eastern.

Magic at Pistons, 7, Prime Video (ORL leads, I cannot believe I'm saying this, 3-1)
Raptors at Cavaliers, 7:30, ESPN (Series tied 2-2)
Rockets at Lakers, 10, ESPN (LAL leads 3-1)

Be excellent to each other.