The NBA wants in on the action
The league cuts a deal with shady prediction market platforms not to protect the sanctity of basketball or fans, but to get a slice of the vig.
The league cuts a deal with shady prediction market platforms not to protect the sanctity of basketball or fans, but to get a slice of the vig.
Good morning. It's Free Newsletter Wednesday. This whole thing is unlocked for everyone. Let's basketball.
The National Basketball Association, which has experienced a continuous revenue explosion since 2012 due to factors mostly out of its control, is never satisfied. The league's basketball-related income – which covers basically everything NBA teams and the league collectively earn outside of team ownership transactions – has more than doubled in inflation-adjusted dollars over 14 years. Why? Digital video recording made live sports one of the only valuable T.V. properties, leading to an explosion of media rights revenue. Then the collapse of the cable industry led to streaming services fighting over live sports media rights, further juicing that bucket of income. Live in-person entertainment continues to get more expensive broadly, something NBA teams are happy to glom onto. The Supreme Court ruled a federal gambling ban unconstitutional, sparking many states to legalize it and opening the door for the league (all of the leagues, actually) to take a cut of the action by partnering with the books and taking their ad money. Crypto, seeking to legitimize itself and reach everyday Americans, slapped its branding on arena and commercial breaks until folks started going to prison. Outside of the basketball-related income story, team valuations have exploded as private equity hunts down high-upside properties to soak up, regardless of the impact on the product.
Money, money, money everywhere. Players making tens of millions of dollars participate both by getting their labor-mandated cut of the overall piece, and also cut deals on the side to leverage their likeness for awful partners in betting and crypto (but I repeat myself) spaces. Money, money, money everywhere.
The NBA announced Monday that it is partnering with leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, becoming the latest major U.S. sports league to team up with the controversial industry that opponents say blurs the line between gambling and financial trading.
Yes, the NBA joins MLB and the NHL and Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James in legitimizing Kalshi and Polymarket, two scummy betting apps that masquerade as commodity-trading platforms. As if "which group will produce the NBA Cup champion?" is a real commodity worth trading.
How did the NBA frame the decision to get in bed with platforms that are quite possibly illegal and certainly a drain on society? From the league's press release:
The National Basketball Association (NBA) today announced a set of agreements designed to establish a comprehensive framework for NBA-related prediction markets, including a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the designation of Kalshi and Polymarket as the league’s Preferred Prediction Market Exchanges.
The agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket put in place significant integrity protections for NBA-related markets, including limitations on permissible markets, affirmative prohibitions on trading NBA event contracts by league and team personnel, and information-sharing obligations relating to investigations and suspicious trading.
Yeah, we're putting integrity protections on the pocket casino that preys on our fans. We're establishing limitations on permissible markets as the app aggressively trying to turn your paycheck into a crooked corporation's profit margin. We're affirmatively prohibiting trading NBA event contracts by league and team personnel so we can fire people who embarrass us, and we're obligating some information sharing relating to investigations and suspicious trading so you know exactly which players are fixing games. And for all this work, we're going to take a cut of the action to cover our costs and maybe boost that basketball-related income a little more. You're welcome.
Young adults between 18 and 21, who are legally barred from most gambling in the US, have traded an estimated $5.4 billion so far this year on the Kalshi prediction market, according to a new CNN analysis. [...]
Sports and parlays (an all-or nothing bundle of bets, which are popular with sports) make up about 80% of Kalshi’s overall volume. The CNN analysis found that Kalshi users between 18 and 21 have traded an estimated $3.9 billion in those categories this year – and that’s expected to rise.
This is an immoral industry promoting itself in immoral ways, and everyone who signed off on this and will profit from this should be ashamed. Yeah, I'm on a high horse. But I'm right, and the view from up here should be beautiful, but it's just sad, because this nonsense partnership is only going to help more people, mostly young men, ruin their lives.
Ban the apps.
The Basketball Is Good. But The Injuries? Well, The Injuries Are Bad
An updated list of injuries announced since this weekend:
- Anthony Edwards will miss two months due to knee surgery
- Jaren Jackson Jr. tore his MCL and will miss six weeks
- Kawhi Leonard has knee soreness and will sit for "weeks"
- Jalen Suggs will miss at least two weeks with a knee bruise
And as you already know, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace will miss most if not all of the season, Jalen Duren is out two weeks and Paolo Banchero is out 6-8 weeks.
This sucks! Utah and Orlando are suddenly under the gun; the Jazz haven't looked great and have lost some crucial size early in the season. The Magic are in a deep, tough playoff and play-in race in the East and the margin for error was already slim. The Wolves looked incredible early and Edwards looked like an MVP candidate; now LaMelo Ball and Jaden McDaniels will need to keep the offense afloat for months – it could cost Minnesota a top-6 seed.
The worst part is that this probably isn't it. It's still October. These dudes have played 3-4 real games. More will come, unfortunately.
Scores
Nets 124, Celtics 125 (OT) – Holy smokes. Mikel Brown Jr. put up 17 points ... all of them in the fourth quarter and overtime, including an incredible shot to force overtime.
Also, Brown is 20 years old and in his third NBA game. "Rookie mistake" is a phrase for a reason. Here he is with Brooklyn up one with the ball with 20 seconds left.
To recap, Brown misses a lay-up (he'll get that in the future, great work getting downhill), the Nets retain the ball on review due to a Luka Garza foul, the Nets can run out the clock or at least try to get fouled and extend the lead, instead MBJ puts up another lay-up, it misses, Boston recovers and Jayson Tatum does this to give him 40 on the night.
Lamb chops and gravy. Happy for him.
Helluva fight by Brooklyn. They'll be picking up wins soon (assuming Egor Demin's leg injury isn't serious).
Pistons 97, Knicks 111 – New York got its mojo back. Mikal Bridges hit four threes and, more importantly, Karl-Anthony Towns, who has been the Knicks' best player so far this season, had a monster night with Jalen Duren out.
I don't think Paul Reed and John Collins are a sustainable battery against KAT.
The Knicks leave the ranks of the winless, leaving just Miami and Brooklyn in the East. Detroit becomes the last East team to lose a game. So it goes.
Kings 103, Spurs 130 – Victor Wembanyama had nine dunks in 27 minutes. That's a dunk every three minutes on average.
Nique Clifford: five minutes in a blowout. It must be so hard to find him minutes when the rest of the bench is going, uh, 4/25 from the floor. Is it too early to call for Doug Christie's job?
The Kings remain one of two winless teams in the West, alongside New Orleans.
Blazers 136, Lakers 129 – Someone take away my keyboard because it might be time to get a little reckless about the most interesting team on the West Coast, your Portland Trail Blazers. The defense needs some help for sure, but the offense is absolutely roasting.
Ja Morant, Deni Avdija and Damian Lillard all hitting shots on the Lakers in the clutch. You know how everyone's pointing out that LaMelo in Minnesota works because he has a clearly top dog he respects in the backcourt with him? Ja in Portland, folks. Ja in Portland.
The Blazers remain among the West undefeated, along with the Rockets, Thunder and Grizzlies. The Lakers lose that status with their first loss. So it goes.
In other news, there were so many flop calls late in this game!
Links
PAUL FLANNERY'S SUNDAY SHOOTAROUND IS BACK. One of my favorite things to do when I was with SB Nation was editing this column. Glad to see it revived by Flanns.
Zach Lowe on the Nuggets' worrisome start.
Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic reports that Malik Beasley will plead guilty to federal charges coming out of the investigation into alleged game-fixing.
Nikola Jokic is really pissed about Denver fans booing the team. Noted.
John Schuhmann's always-awesome power rankings.
Michael Pina's Week 1 overreactions.
Kelly Dwyer on OKC and the West after OKC. Here's Tom Haberstroh on the Thunder, too.
I missed this last week, but Logan Murdock pulled some clarity and honesty out of Steve Kerr.
Schedule
Twelve more games, including an ESPN doubleheader. Bold text for the intrigues. All times Eastern.
Heat at Hawks, 7
Wizards at Cavaliers, 7
Hornets at Pistons, 7
Sixers at Pacers, 7, ESPN
Magic at Raptors, 7:30
Knicks at Bulls, 8
Rockets at Bucks, 8
Warriors at Timberwolves, 8
Nuggets at Pelicans, 8
Spurs at Jazz, 9
Thunder at Mavericks, 9:30, ESPN
Lakers at Clippers, 10:30
Be excellent to each other.
