15 fearless predictions for the 2026 NBA playoffs

The field of 16 is set. We have between 60 and 105 games remaining. What's going to happen? I don't know, but that won't stop me from predicting it.

Good morning. Did young Steph and Klay ever get embarrassed on a big stage by a dude's whose nickname is PB & No J? Asking for a friend. Let's basketball.

The 2026 NBA playoffs begin in earnest with a Saturday matinee after Friday's night anti-thrilling resolution of the Play-In Tournament settles in. We have our field of 16, our bracket, our series schedules. Now all we need to do is watch it all unfurl before our eyes.

But first, let's make some fearless and potentially embarrassing predictions about how this is going to go series by series. I'm going to regret not putting this behind the paywall!

1. The Magic, fresh off convincingly destroying a rising rival, will be thrown into dissociative crisis by an absolutely pummeling at the hands of the Pistons. Observers will wonder how an upstart Detroit team who had a 28-game losing streak the same year Orlando won 47 games could have lapped them so quickly and easily. The answer: Cade Cunningham is a constant and consistent engine, the internal improvement of Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson have been incredible, and the Pistons just make sense in a way the Magic never did. Detroit in four, with prejudice. Jamahl Mosley out before the Pistons leave the airport.
2. The Cavaliers and their representative parts have had some issues at certain points of the playoffs over the years, but not always in the first round. The Raptors are subtly powerful though the bench is not what it was early in the season and you trust Cleveland's top scorers and bigs more than you do for Toronto. Glad to have the East postseason back in The North, though. Cleveland in a close five.
3. Joel Embiid is not playing and should not play in this series. An emergency appendectomy in the final week of the regular season is just a totally crazy, wouldn't-believe-it-in-a-novel twist. These Celtics never play down to their opponent, and while a full-strength Sixers team could have a talent advantage, Philadelphia just doesn't have the inside presence to punish the lack of playoff experience of Boston's center rotation. Tyrese Maxey vs. Derrick White is a dream match-up (not for those guys, they're going to hate it). Jaylen Brown vs. V.J. Edgecombe, Jayson Tatum vs. Paul George. There's a lot here, but the Celtics have answered every call this season. Boston in a convincing six. Close enough for Philadelphia to run it back; distant enough for no one in Philly to feel great next October.
4. Jalen Johnson is a treasure, and C.J. McCollum has carried an iffy team on his back to the playoffs again. The Atlanta defense is fun and flexible, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has paired with McCollum to provide a much-need scoring punch that doesn't turn everyone else into observers. (Yes, that's Trae Young slander. Everyone's doing it.) But this is the Knicks: maybe the best top six in the conference, maybe the best scoring guard in the conference in Jalen Brunson, maybe the best offensive big man in the conference in Karl-Anthony Towns and more playoff success than any East team but Boston. Atlanta has a lot of defensive answers. The Knicks should have them breaking their pencils in frustration. New York in six. Bing Bong No. 1.
5. What a season for the Suns! Great vibes and a nice path forward to build. Oklahoma City in four.
6. Kevin Durant, through it all, has been one of the 10 most impactful players of the season. We focus a lot on Houston's flaws because they were so good last season and haven't clicked this time around; we're constantly exploring why even though the answer is pretty straightforward (guard play, particularly on offense). It's still a pretty damn good team, and this would have been a fun series if Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves were healthy. As it stands, with no offense to J.J. Redick, LeBron James or the players who are healthy, L.A. is legitimately drawing dead against an opponent of this quality. Unless Luka is back by Game 3, this is a wrap. Houston in five.
7. Zach Lowe laid this out well on a podcast this week: everything Portland does well, San Antonio is well-suited to stop. The biggest factor is that Deni Avdija, one of the best contact-drawers in the league, is going to need to try to rack up fouls on a Spurs team that doesn't foul much. Stephon Castle has been talked up as getting an early assignment on Avdija, and Castle can get overly aggressive at times. But having the backstops of Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and Mitch Johnson having other options in the case Castle does get into Zebra Jail – all that adds up to Portland struggling to score 110 in each game. On the other end, the Blazers' defense has been quite good and Donovan Clingan will embrace the impossible challenge of dealing with Wemby. But I embrace lots of things that don't end up going well. San Antonio in five.
8. Nuggets-Wolves III. This feels like Nuggets-Clippers last year: a fierce bloody battle way too early in the bracket that ends up effectively destroying both teams. Here's what I come back to: the Wolves' victory over the Nuggets two years ago in that instant classic series relied on Minnesota's vicious defense turning Jamal Murray into a goat (remember the heat pack?) and putting Denver all out of sorts. Minnesota's defense has not felt the same this season (they were No. 1 in the '24 regular season, No. 8 this year) and the Nuggets' offense is way more consistent, especially when it comes to Murray, who is playing better than ever right now. Anthony Edwards will have plenty of moments here, but I think the Nuggets are just better positioned overall. And they do have the reigning Best Player Alive. Denver in a shocking five. (Oh god, what am I doing?!)
9. SECOND ROUND. Detroit vs. Cleveland. There be demons. This is nightmare fuel for Jarrett Allen, who was effectively a part of the James Harden trade. If Evan Mobley has a breakout series, this could be difficult for the Pistons to handle since a mobile, stretchy Mobley could pull Duren and Stewart away from the rim, giving space to Harden and Donovan Mitchell. Detroit, as we've all said ad nauseum because it's true, lacks much shooting. Cleveland theoretically does not. But the Cavaliers' shooters aren't always consistent, and Max Strus hasn't had long to get into a rhythm under the Harden regime. They're going to miss Ty Jerome! I think Cunningham's toughness and consistency, the frontcourt neutralization powers and home court advantage give the Pistons enough of an edge here. Detroit in seven.
10. Alright, this has been my mostly-privately-held position on the East since Tatum returned and looked great: the Knicks effectively beat the Celtics before Tatum went down last spring, and the Celtics then lost Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet from that group. Plus: Tatum was healthy for the first 3.9 games of that series (which New York led 3-1 when he was ruled out) and he's recovering – recovering nicely, but still recovering – now. Boston beats everyone because it takes no one lightly. In the playoffs, that's just way less of a factor. The Knicks have answers for Boston, as we've seen, and while you can never understimate the Heart of a Champion, and a triumph here would be ultra poetic, there are some clear talent advantages beyond the top two or three players here. New York in six. Bing Bong No. 2.
11. Like I said, Houston's still a pretty damn good team. It'll be really cool to see Kevin Durant play important games in OKC again. The Chet Holmgren-Alperen Sengun matchup is weird and interesting. Oklahoma City in four.
12. I might die 14 different times during a Nuggets-Spurs series. The battle between Jokic and Wembanyama the last time both teams went hard might have been my game of the season, and notably Jokic came out ahead. Murray is just the type of crafty, multi-faceted guard to try to find San Antonio's defensive weak spots, and Aaron Gordon's chemistry with Jokic as Wemby commits to trying to smother The Joker could pay off. But Denver's defense has been quite shaky for, like, 60 games now. The Spurs have the No. 3 offense in the NBA. San Antonio has been scoring like crazy for 50 or so games. I just don't think Denver's backcourt can contain the blitz from Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper, and Jokic is going to be battered and stretched dealing with Wemby when the Spurs can get that match-up. It's happening. It's all happening. San Antonio in seven.
13. Pistons-Knicks II. Last time it took a couple of miracle New York comebacks to survive a first-round series. That series was a wonderful second act for Detroit after the catastrophic 2023-24 season, and narratively you feel like the next stage in this drama should be to overcome the prior foe and move on further. But things don't always work like that in the real world, in the real NBA. We have to retrofit narratives onto messy realities. And the messy reality is that the Knicks' depth of offensive talent rivals the Pistons' depth of defensive talent, and the same can't be said on the other end, where New York has options for Cunningham and Duren (not perfect options, but options) whereas someone like Duncan Robinson or Kevin Huerter (an old Mike Brown side character) are going to be mercilessly hunted. Mitchell Robinson feels like the wild card in this series. But Brunson feels like the ace. Knicks in six. Bing Bong No. 3. We're binging and we're bonging.
14. Spurs-Thunder I, or Spurs-Thunder VI for this season. Fact: Wembanyama dislikes Chet and wants to destroy him. Fact: the Thunder are deeply annoyed that the Spurs smoked them multiple times in front of the entire NBA fandom and would love little more than sweet revenge on the biggest possible stage. Fact: Wembanyama finds Shai Gilgeous-Alexander distasteful and wants to destroy him. Fact: Oklahoma City is the deepest defensive team in memory, and has pitbull after pitbull to throw at San Antonio's many guards. Fact: Shai is the best scorer in the world. Fact: Wembanyama is the best defender in the world. Fact: San Antonio has some sort of head-to-head edge against the Thunder. San Antonio in seven. I don't know if that's a fact, but that where I'm at. Denver isn't going to destroy the Spurs amid a mutual bloodbath; they are going to sharpen the Spurs.
15. Spurs vs. Knicks. The ghosts of '99. The In-Season Tournament championship rematch. I said Denver will sharpen the Spurs. The Thunder might destroy them, even if the Spurs were to win. There's a physicality to OKC that I'm just not sure any opponent can survive in one piece. So I'm thinking of that, and I'm thinking of a similar but not as aggressively violent path for New York. I'm thinking of the gold medal game in the 2024 Olympics in Paris. I'm thinking of Wembanyama trying everything to win, leaving nothing in his body, mind or spirit. I'm thinking of him coming up short. That time, it was a classic Steph Curry nuit nuit moment. This time is it Brunson taking over? KAT going unconscious? The Spurs' relative youth and inexperience cutting them short? Exhaustion after a longer season than any of them but ol' Harrison Barnes have ever played? Every one of Mike Brown's tricks and tweaks? Mitch Johnson's greenness? Am I just thinking of that time way back in October when I picked the Knicks to win the championship and I refuse to let go of that particular string because calling it again and it actually happening might make me a minor folk hero among the Knicks fandom in small circles of the Basketball Internet? Maybe. Who cares? Knicks in six. BING BONG FOREVER.

There you go. Fifteen series. Fifteen predictions. Infinite possibility it all goes to hell by Sunday night.

Good Things Fall Apart I

The Charlotte Hornets, at this point, do not appear to be the second coming of the dynastic Warriors, because the Charlotte Hornets, at this point, barely beat a middling Heat team without its best player in one play-in game and got smoked slow and low 121-90 by the freaking Magic in the next.

The Hornets were getting doubled up two breaths before halftime.

Charlotte barely got within 25 in the second half. Just a brutal no-show on defense and the offense was a total mess in the first half – the Hornets had 13 made field goals and 11 turnovers at the break. Credit the Magic for breaking Charlotte early and often. This has always been in them! Paolo Banchero established dominance early and Jalen Suggs hit some loud threes in the second.

I enjoy Moussa Diabate and he'll be a great sixth man. Charlotte needs to topline center and needs to excise the karmic weight of Miles Bridges from their franchise. The team will not win big so long as that dude is around. I've said it before and I'll say it again.

Good Things Fall Apart II

Let's start at the end.

The Warriors didn't have it and the Suns did, and Golden State is eliminated with a 1111-96 loss. It's the Warriors' third death by play-in this decade. Bulls West. That's not a compliment.

Steve Kerr, whose contract is up, says he doesn't know if he's coming back and that "these jobs all have an expiration date." He's taking a week to consider. One presumes, given that pose, Golden State has made him an offer to return that he's not insulted by. Or it could be clever and proactive from Kerr if the Warriors are trying to squeeze or even move on from him.

Stephen Curry (17 points on 4/16 shooting in 36 minutes) will definitely be back. Draymond Green is another question mark; his individual defense over the past couple of weeks has been as good as ever, and if the Warriors win another playoff series in this era without adding a topline superstar to the mix, Green's defense and passing chemistry with Steph would be a real reason. But I do think Mike Dunleavy Jr. might explore what's out there this summer beyond the packages for players like Giannis Antetokounmpo. We'll see. If that was all for Green in a Warriors jersey, at least he went out on his terms: jabberjawin' his way into an ejection and mocking Scott Foster for good measure.

If that's it, the only more fitting exit would have been a suspension for choking a Frenchman or a championship-winning screen and pitchback to Curry. But ejected for talking s--t in garbage time of a play-in loss is on point for latter-day Draymond, too.

Devin Booker was relatively quiet in both play-in games. Jalen Green was not. He was the best scorer on the floor on Friday. Complete domination of the Warriors' backcourt. He's the play-in MVP.

Schedule

We have a suite of Games 1. All times Eastern. All of them are must-watch if you can!

Raptors at Cavaliers, 1, Prime Video
Timberwolves at Nuggets, 3:30, Prime Video
Hawks at Knicks, 6, Prime Video
Rockets at Lakers, 8:30, ABC

We'll be back on Sunday with reactions to the first slate of 2026 NBA playoff games. It's happening!

Be excellent to each other.