13 fearless predictions for the 2025-26 NBA season

The regular season begins Tuesday night. It's time to make some bold predictions that will certainly come back to haunt us. Good morning. Let's basketball.

As is tradition, it's time for a set of fearless predictions about the NBA season. These will almost certainly be wrong! But it's fun to imagine what's possible.

1. We're going to get two surprise teams in the Eastern Conference out of the gate. Either the Raptors or the Bulls will launch into the top six, and the Hornets will stay in play-in territory longer than you think. This probably means that a team with legitimate expectations falters hard, which can be its own type of joy, depending on the team.
2. Trae Young's pending free agency becomes at least as big a story as the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors, as Trae's inability to reach an extension with the Hawks opens up a midseason trade market involving the Nets, the Clippers, the Heat, the Bulls and the Kings.
3. Peacock/NBC's presentation of the NBA this season is seamless and earns plaudits. The Amazon Prime set-up tries to capture a bit of the TNT energy and is uneven. The ESPN presentation is pretty similar to before, with Tim Legler basically replicating Doris Burke's style on the top crew, albeit without instant hate from the worst people you know. The Inside the NBA gambit on ESPN turns into the Inside guys trying to see what they can get away with in the House of Mouse.
4. Side quest! The WNBA work stoppage goes into June and becomes a major point of critique for the crossover NBA owners. The WNBA ends up playing half of a season after the owners relent on a fixed revenue share with players. In the interim, there's uproar in Unrivaled about refereeing. (The lesson: everyone always thinks referees always suck.)
5. The NBA hands down a moderate punishment in the fake tree investigation (multiple draft picks, a Steve Ballmer suspension or rapping on the knuckles, a huge fine) in late March or early April, well after Ballmer hosts All-Star at Intuit Dome.
6. Luka Doncic is your 2025-26 NBA MVP. He carries the Lakers to a top-4 finish in the West while LeBron struggles in one of his final battles with Father Time. (He does not yet announce his retirement plans.) Luka edges his friend Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the race, and the term "Lakers exceptionalism" is misused on at least one well-resourced podcast.
7. After winning at least 40 games in a row for three straight seasons, the Kings return to their roots and fall below that figure, and start a firesale around midseason.
8. Cooper Flagg and Ace Bailey are locked in a battle for Rookie of the Year all season, with Flagg getting the final nod because he's playing for a team challenging for a play-in spot instead of a 23-win squad.
9. Joel Embiid plays 60-odd games, the Sixers are pretty good but can't get past the top teams in the East in the playoffs. Nick Nurse is fired in the offseason. Daryl Morey somehow survives. Despite Embiid putting up 30 and 12 during the regular season, he receives disproportionate criticism from the usual suspects.
10. The NBA announces no progress on domestic expansion, but does announce the launch of the NBA Europe league with some signature preseason games next fall. Many of the investors make you queasy.
11. We have a troika of powerhouse teams in the East: the Knicks, the Cavaliers and ... the Bucks, who crash the party, beating Cleveland in a classic to make the conference finals. However, the Knicks overcome Giannis (see, they didn't need the trade!) and make the Finals for the first time since How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. I write about Karl-Anthony Towns' legacy and Mark Cuban's huge Jalen Brunson mistake several times.
12. The West is an absolute and total bloodbath with the Rockets, Wolves and Nuggets all legitimate challengers to the Thunder, and the Lakers, Clippers, Spurs and Warriors following close behind. OKC-San Antonio is an instant classic 1-8 match-up. One of the three oldhead teams overcomes youth and beauty, but somehow the Rockets make it into the conference finals with the Thunder. OKC outlasts them in yet another classic. It's fearless to predict awesome basketball games!
13. Your New York Knicks shock the world and win a championship for the first time in more than five decades. They build a statue of Jalen Brunson to go next to the Statue of Liberty. Rick Brunson is heralded as a hero. James Dolan gets mercilessly booed during the trophy ceremony. Zohran Mamdani does not. Karl-Anthony Towns goes on the worst social media revenge tour you can imagine. Mike Brown is absolutely lit up at the parade. Stephen A. Smith takes credit and tries to use the championship to launch his presidential run. It does not hit.

There you have it. A Knicks championship. Tell me that's not fearless.

More Extensions

We'll dig deeper into these later this week, but:

• Kevin Durant inked a two-year, $90 million deal
• Shaedon Sharpe signed for four years, $90 million with the Blazers
• Toumani Camara signed for four years, $82 million with the Blazers (wow Blazers, you're doing it)
• Christian Braun gets five years, $125 million from the Nuggets
• It's four years and $100 million for Dyson Daniels in Atlanta
• The Pacers added two more years to Aaron Nesmith's deal for $40 million

I'm feeling less good about the $140 million for Keegan Murray now.

Schedule

The NBA regular season begins! Hope you have access to NBC or Peacock. Our household has decided for now that we can live without our cable replacement (YouTube TV), so we're going full a la carte with Peacock, the Disney bundle (including ESPN Unlimited) and Amazon Prime Video. I'm adding NBC Sports California to our Peacock subscription to make sure I get Kings games.

All times Eastern.

Rockets at Thunder, 7:30, NBC/Peacock
Warriors at Lakers, 10, NBC/Peacock

That's all for now. Thanks for all of the kind comments and responses to Monday's piece. Be excellent to each other.