Watching for drop-outs

In the NBA's new lottery system, the biggest tanking risk is from teams who could make a run at the play-in but choose instead of fall out of the race and improve draft standing. How will we tell when teams do this?

Good morning. I, for one, would prefer that no one lets anyone take out Los Angeles or San Diego. Let's basketball.

Under the NBA's new lottery system, there's no incentive to being among the very worst teams in the league. In fact, for teams that control their own picks, there's a distinct disincentive: the worst three teams, dubbed by yours truly the Zone of Shame, will see their lottery odds suffer by dint of their craptitude.

But this doesn't mean tanking is dead in the NBA. It will just shift higher up the standings.

The penalty from landing in the Zone of Shame will also apply to each conference's 9th- and 10th-place teams. This is less a shameful penalty than an adjustment for teams that make the play-in, as those 9th and 10th seeds do. But it's a decrease in draft odds all the same, and we have already seen teams drop out of the play-in race to preserve their picks when protections come into play. Of course teams will do it now that being the 11th-worst team in a conference means 8% odds at the No. 1 pick.

Other rules on consecutive high picks, pick trades and swaps and other factors will impact teams' decision-making. It will not be universal that mid-tier teams will avoid the play-in to boost odds; everything is conditional, as it has been. But it's worth exploring what signs of a drop-out might look like before we get into the season where it takes new shape.