Breakthrough or break-up in Orlando
This could be the end of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as Magic co-stars. How should the franchise approach a break-up?
This could be the end of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner as Magic co-stars. How should the franchise approach a break-up?
Good morning. This Hyrox thing is a real test of the old "all press is good press" canard. Let's basketball.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero have now been teammates for four seasons; the German star entered the league a year before his partner. The pairing has led to Orlando Magic to zero playoff series wins and no seed higher than No. 5 in the East, but the team has been a preseason dark horse basically ever autumn and has pushed a higher seed to a Game 7 twice.
The weird thing about Paolo and Franz is that so much attention ends up focused on what doesn't really work between the two, even though they are both nice players. Their games – predicated on volume scoring with relatively similar shot profiles, both surprisingly inefficient from deep, not really major playmakers, solid to good defenders with good size and an ability to draw fouls – are less complementary than duplicative. The on-off and lineup numbers have never really loved the duo, and it's been hard to get a read on what other players augment for them because the rest of the Magic roster has been so inconsistent, starting with Jalen Suggs.
If things don't point to a major breakthrough this season, the break-up seems imminent. The question becomes: who do you jettison?
Franz is a year older and a year deeper into his NBA career. They make basically identical salaries – $41 million this season, 25% of the salary cap – through 2029-30. Banchero has a player option for $54 million in 2030-31 (27% of the projected cap). So financially, there's no benefit or penalty to either. Wagner is slightly more efficient on similar usage; Paolo is a better rebounder and passer. Paolo, as a former No. 1 pick, a Rookie of the Year and a heretofore one-time All-Star, also feels ... better, even though it's really hard to put your finger on how exactly that is. He presents more fully as an NBA star, possibly due to the body type, his foul-drawing ability (a key differentiator) and his pedigree. Wagner also simply does not shoot threes well enough to project as an elite second- or third-option around an ultra-high usage teammate. Though perhaps the fact that he's not paired with one is what's holding back that element of his game. Perhaps Paolo's shortcomings as an offensive fulcrum force Franz to do too much, limiting his own effectiveness due to being overstretched.
There are stretches where Wagner feels capable of great things in the NBA. There are stretches similar for Paolo. Rarely do those overlap.
That's what makes this potentially doomed pairing so interesting as we enter Year 5, especially since the Magic made a big bet on it last summer by trading draft equity galore for Desmond Bane, and then did very little to augment the status quo this summer other than replace a coach who had mutually soured on Banchero. How do you make a decision on who to keep? Is it all about the offers you get, and if you assume the offers for Banchero far outstrip the offers for Wagner, that's the path? Was the Bane trade made just over a year ago with the advance knowledge that things would either really work out or that if things didn't, the Magic could get draft equity back by trading one of the forwards? Is there another move – perhaps Suggs, if there's a market for him; his contract is 19% of the cap but decreasing – to try to give Franz and Paolo another context to try to thrive within? Does the Magic brain trust really think that a new coach might solve it?
What do Franz and Paolo really think about playing with each other? They say all the right things, but it never looks quite right.
The Magic are right to have been patient so far; it's not clear how much longer than can continue. Orlando has at least returned to being a consistent playoff team, and has come close to winning the franchise's first series since the second round in 2010. (In that last playoff series win? Joe Smith played five minutes for the Hawks. There's also a Joe Smith connection!) This seems like the fulcrum season, the season of a breakthrough for Paolo and Franz, or a break-up.
