Tiers of the West

Two weeks until the regular season arrives. It's time to sort teams and look ahead to what the rankings might look like when games start counting. We start with the Western Conference, where there are 10 good teams for eight spots and four more possibly decent teams aiming to mess things up. Good morning. Let's basketball.

TIER 1: MAJOR CONTENDERS

We have four teams that, unless something goes quite wrong, should be aiming toward the conference finals, at which point anything can happen.

Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder might belong in a tier all their own, but I would caution against inevitable outcomes at the highest level of the NBA based on recent history. To wit: Denver looked like an obvious repeat threat in 2023-24 until their second best player (Aaron Gordon) got banged up and their second best offensive player (Jamal Murray) fell into the confidence void. Boston looked like an obvious repeat threat in 2024-25 until the Knicks put them in hell in the second round (and then Jayson Tatum went down). Things happen! OKC is the title favorite until proven otherwise, but they can certainly be proven otherwise.

Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets nearly beat the Thunder last spring, and might have had they not had such a brutal war with the Clippers in the first round. Denver is also quite possibly better suited for playoff success this time around, with a high-level back-up center in Jonas Valanciunas, a potentially better fit at the three in Cam Johnson in lieu of Michael Porter Jr. and a full year with new coach David Adelman. (I'm excited about the return of Bruce Brown too, but he's done very little in two years so let's see it.) The Nuggets are certainly in the mix for a(nother) championship.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Two straight Western Conference Finals berths, which is nothing to sneeze at. No other team has gone to back-to-back WCF since the Warriors in 2018 and 2019. (And 2015, 2016 and 2017.) What's as impressive is that the Wolves did it with two different No. 2 options: first Karl-Anthony Towns, then Julius Randle. The combination of Anthony Edwards, a high-level defense anchored by Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels and some solid big man scorers has proven to work. Minnesota still has all that, and there's a leap year coming at some point for Edwards. Every regular season Minnesota vs. Oklahoma City will be a must-watch just to see what Chris Finch has cooked up.

Houston Rockets
The Fred VanVleet injury could knock Houston out of this group, but let's make sure that the addition of Kevin Durant and some more seasoning for Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson and Tari Eason don't overwhelm that. Let's see what Ime Udoka is going to do at the point before we write them off. The WCF for a core without a playoff series win is a high target, but then Durant is 37. Time is of the essence.

TIER 2: MINOR CONTENDERS

High-level teams with caveats and less certainty of excellence.

L.A. Lakers
Luka Doncic surrounded by NBA talent makes a Minor Contender at a base level. And Luka is surrounded by NBA talent: LeBron earned second team All NBA honors last season, Austin Reaves is a high-level scorer, guys like Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart belong on the court. That's the source of my belief in the Lakers as a minor contender: Luka is an extraordinary player whose taken lesser talent bases to the WCF twice, and LeBron is a top-15 player until proven otherwise.

L.A. Clippers
The Clippers lost Norman Powell (bad) but added John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez and Chris Paul. Kawhi Leonard is also starting the season healthy and, one assumes, well-rested. Of all the players least likely to be bothered by an off-court scandal in which no one was apparently directly harmed, Kawhi is Candidate No. 1. The Clippers didn't win a series last year but had the Nuggets a miracle tip from defeat and remain a heavyweight in the West. Age and injury potential have outsized roles here, but if things go well, this team could be heavily in the mix.

TIER 3: PLAYOFF MIX

These are teams that are not title contenders but are on the cusp of breaking into the West's top six should another team falter. Each is at minimum a big move or major surprise away from title contention. If no teams from higher tiers slip downward, at least two of these teams will miss the playoffs entirely.

Golden State Warriors
Steph Curry is still playing at the level that should elevate the Warriors to a Minor Contender at minimum, but he's 37 and the biggest reason by far you'd have Golden State high in the rankings. Jimmy Butler clicked fine with Steph and Draymond Green upon arrival last season, but the rest of the roster did not really click around those three. There are still valid questions about the offense around Steph, and while Al Horford will be immensely helpful when on the court in both stretching the floor and giving the team yet another able defender, we really need to see a viable role for Jonathan Kuminga or elevated play from Moses Moody or Brandin Podziemski.

Dallas Mavericks
Dallas could rise to Minor Contender status if Cooper Flagg has an immense instant impact or Kyrie Irving looks great after coming back a little early. If Kyrie keeps some of his explosion, Anthony Davis stays healthy and Flagg is a quick study, I do think the Mavericks are on pace to be a Minor Contender at worst in 2026-27. The supporting cast is deep and quite good: several teams higher up the rankings would love to have P.J. Washington, Naji Marshall or Daniel Gafford. The guard depth is somewhat concerning.

Memphis Grizzlies
The loss of Desmond Bane is troubling, and there's a significant chance that Memphis could slip into the Play-In Mix. The base duo of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. just flat-out wins regular season games, though, as flawed as it can look in the postseason. Memphis always finds diamonds in the rough, and some of those diamonds like Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaylen Wells, maybe Vince Williams, definitely Santi Aldama should play significant roles. For the games Morant misses, it's Ty Jerome time! Odds are Memphis will be the team that we're all, like, "How are they 5th in the West right now?" at some point.

San Antonio Spurs
You could tell me the Spurs are the No. 2 seed or the Spurs are the No. 12 seed and I wouldn't know what to believe. So let's slot them in here to the Playoff Mix. Health is the biggest factor for every team. Factor No. 2 for the Spurs is whether the offense can be average or better. Shooting is an established limit to what this team can become, but an offensive leap from Victor Wembanyama could relieve pressure on shooters like De'Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell and others. We're also monitoring Mitch Johnson's performance as permanent head coach.

TIER 4: PLAY-IN MIX

Sacramento Kings
The offensive duo of Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis is underrated. Keegan Murray is underutilized. DeMar DeRozan is absolute thrill to watch and root for, and I'm torn on whether it's better to have someone like that on a doomed team or set them free to help a better team level up. (Half the East playoff-range squads could use DeRozan right now. So could the Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets and Wolves.) Dennis Schroder helps. Malik Monk is good. This team isn't going to straight-up suck. That's what I can tell you.

New Orleans Pelicans
See my recent piece on the Pelicans. Look, a healthy Zion Williamson is an All NBA player. That's worth a lot of wins. There are a ridiculous number of questions. But there's a platform for quality basketball here.

Portland Trail Blazers
Scoot Henderson's injury (he'll miss about the first month of the season) likely means more action for veteran Jrue Holiday, who is quite good, which likely means a higher baseline for Portland. Deni Avdija has proven himself as a plus starter in his current role, and I strongly believe in Shaedon Sharpe. The center position will be interesting – Donovan Clingan is the starter, Yang Hansen could get some play – and I have no clue how Chauncey Billups will handle Jerami Grant's role. Weird team that could be stunningly competitive most nights, even more so than last season.

Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green: that's a trio that will have nights where they absolutely demoralize their opponents by just getting hot and pouring in buckets. But I'm deeply skeptical of the frontcourt unless Mark Williams miraculously stays healthy, and there are going to be nights where those guards shoot you out of the game. I don't see a path to only 25 wins unless Booker misses long stretches, but I also don't really see a path to 39 wins.

TIER 5: TANK TIME

Utah Jazz
For this conversation, it doesn't matter if Lauri Markkanen gets traded or not. The Jazz are built to stink, and will. There will be plenty of interesting things to watch with this team – the Ace Bailey experience, whether Keyonte George can earn a decent second contract, how the frontcourt shakes out – but none of them will involve whether or not they win games.

Schedule

Here's what going on for the preseason on Monday. All times Eastern.

Bucks at Heat, 7:30
Hawks at Rockets, 8
Pistons at Grizzlies, 8
Guangzhou Loong-Lions at Spurs, 8
Thunder vs. Mavericks in Ft. Worth, 8:30, NBA TV
Nuggets vs. Raptors in Vancouver, 10

Alright, be excellent to each other.