Alright, fine, the Warriors have *it*

Golden State looks excellent so far. What's the limit? Is there one? Good morning. Let's basketball.

A reasonable expectation for the Golden State Warriors coming into the season is that the team would return a top-level defense anchored by Draymond Green (a generational defender), Jimmy Butler (an elite individual defender) and Gary Payton II (an elite individual defender), and an offense that strived to land in the middle of the pack centered around a single elite shooter, scorer and creator in Stephen Curry (a top-10 all-time player and the greatest shooter ever), an excellent passer and screener in Green and a creative playmaker and supplemental scorer in Butler. On the high side, if the defense challenged for the league's best and the offense slid above average, this could result in the Warriors being a top-6 team in the West and maybe a top-8 team overall in the league. If there were hiccups on either end – like a 20th-ranked offense, or just a very good defense – that could land the Warriors further down the table, and maybe in the play-in race in the deep, competitive West.

What if it turns out that the Warriors have an elite defense and a shockingly good offense because that hyped run with Curry and Butler last season was a glimpse of reality and not merely something fresh and exciting? What if it turns out Jonathan Kuminga is a plus starter, not just a contractual timeshare? What if it turns out that a starting line-up with one or two actual spacers can still work just fine thanks to scheme and the nature of that one crucial spacer?

The Warriors suffocated the Clippers on Tuesday night, holding L.A. to 40% eFG and avoiding fouls (only 16 FTAs for the Clips). Golden State's offense only put up 98 points itself against the Clippers' high-level defense, but the Warriors controlled the game from about the midway point in the third. Kuminga had a bad scoring game and Curry was cold by his standards. But Green's playmaking, Butler's scoring and the irresistible Golden State defense dominated. Given how solid the Clippers have looked since the Jazz cut them down on opening night, to watch the Warriors shred them into mulch was really something, especially without a classic Curry explosion. The Clippers are really good. The Warriors destroyed them without playing above their heads.

This is a major wrinkle in the West alongside the Spurs' sudden rise to prominence. The Warriors are 4-1 having faced a tough first five. They've notched early wins over the Clippers, Lakers, Nuggets and Grizzlies – all four of them top-8 teams a year ago. The bad loss in Portland stands out, though folks have correctly noted that was a bit of a schedule loss coming after an overtime game on travel.

Health – specifically for key reserve Al Horford, Curry and Butler (who hasn't played 65 games since 2018-19) – will be the key to whether the Warriors can keep it up. If those guys stay healthy and Kuminga remains in Steve Kerr's good graces and the supporting cast stays steady, this is a real damn team with real high expectations.

Thanks to being in the West, the schedule stays hard. But the biggest test comes in about two weeks with a back-to-back in Oklahoma City and San Antonio on November 11-12, then a rest day, then an NBA Cup game in San Antonio on November 14. The Warriors are a real damn team. Over those four days, we'll find out whether the best team in the NBA and the apparent West challenger du jour should be worried about them.

Scores

Sixers 139, Wizards 134 (OT) – Tyrese Maxey is simply going to do it all. He's the NBA's leading scorer right now. He's also averaging 43 minutes per game with just this one overtime game.

Pull-up threes, backdoor cuts, dribble-drives, transition work. He's doing it all. Super impressive start.

Also, are the Sixers simply going to come back from near-defeat every night? As John Schuhmann notes, they are 3-0 this season when trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter. That's probably not sustainable, and they should maybe try to lead games before the closing minutes. But still! Impressive resilience and a damn nice 4-0 record. Joel Embiid did well in his limited minutes (25-7-5, +9 in 23 minutes). Adem Bona saved the game multiple times late. Quentin Grimes is leading a deep field for Sixth Man of the Year.

Shout out to Alex Sarr, doing big things in Year 2.

Hornets 117, Heat 144 – The Miami offense is on fire since it lost the Heat their opener with a late cold streak. They are No. 1 in pace and No. 5 in offense and have scored 140+ in regular twice. Here's some insight from the excellent Couper Moorhead on Erik Spoelstra's new offense:

Read-and-react is one thing. The HEAT have always had a read-and-react element to their offense. It’s one thing to have read-and-react elements, though, and another to have nearly the entire offense be based on that concept, on instinctual, moment-to-moment decisions. Of course it’s not actually the entire offense, but as close as the HEAT, and probably most other teams, have come. That’s how you end up with games like the win over New York where, as Bam Adebayo put it, “I don’t think we ran a play today”.

Consider, for instance, that Miami is only running 22 pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions through three games. Entering this season, the lowest mark of the past 13 years – as far back as we have player-tracking data – was the 2018-19 Philadelphia 76ers at 39.3. For the most part, with a nod to dribble handoffs which Miami has also largely put to the side, this has been a pick-and-roll league. Without that bread-and-butter staple, there is an adjustment process.

The Heat are running about half as many picks-and-rolls as the team with the lowest total in the past 13 years. Incredible. We'll see if it survives Tyler Herro's eventual return, but the signs are good. And Jaime Jaquez Jr. continues to come into the season on an absolute heater (28 in 28 minutes, +43). Maybe Jaquez is leading the deep 6MOY field?

Knicks 111, Bucks 121 – Is it time to turn this into a Giannis newsletter? Because holy smokes, this dude is wrecking everyone. The vibes are impeccable in Milwaukee. At halftime, this felt like a solid Knicks home win: Jalen Brunson was serving, the Bucks defense couldn't do a whole lot with a varied and powerful New York offense. But the Knicks went a little stagnant and a lot cold (71 points in the first half, 40 in the second), the Bucks kept fighting like their lives depended on it, and the New York defense couldn't do a damn thing with Giannis. To be fair, almost no one on the planet can do a damn with Giannis.

Watching Giannis is like watching Hercules handle the Twelve Labours. "Is he going to do it? Damn, he did it!" By the way, if your head is where my head is right now, the Bucks play the Spurs on January 15 and again on March 28. Not soon enough.

Kings 101, Thunder 107 – The Kings legitimately fought their tails off to stay competitive in OKC, and did, playing zone all night and squeezing and pressing and they led by seven with six minutes to go and ... the Thunder just totally railroaded them.

OKC is 5-0. Ajay Mitchell's contract ($9 million over three years) should be illegal. He's averaging 18 a game off the bench. He's probably the fourth best offensive player on the team. And by "the team" I mean "the obvious best team in the league." Maybe Mitchell is actually leading the 6MOY race?

Clippers 79, Warriors 98

Coastal Elitism

I was not clued in that Tuesday's Peacock and NBC games were actually only sort of available live over the air. As it turns out, NBC's "Coast 2 Coast" broadcast features one East game live over the air for folks in the Eastern and Central time zones, and one West game live over the air for folks in the Pacific time zone. Our friends in the Mountain time zone (which includes multiple NBA cities) as well as Hawai'i and Alaska are at the mercy of their local broadcast stations as to whether they get either game live on NBC. This is due to scheduling: NBC wants these games in primetime slots wherever they air. So that East game started at 8 PM Eastern to hit primetime in the Eastern time zone and nudge up against primetime in the Central time zone, and the West game started at the ungodly hour of 11 PM Eastern to hit primetime in the Pacific time zone (8 PM).

I have some thoughts.

1. Wow is that confusing. I guess this is why NFL Sunday broadcasts tell you to "check local listings." The NBA also totally mislead the media and fans about how many games would be broadcast by NBC by touting Tuesdays as NBC's doubleheader night.
2. 8 PM local time tip-offs – which are really 8:10 to 8:15 PM local time tip-offs in the NBA – on weeknights are psychotic. I acknowledge that I have a particularly weird circadian rhythm and am slowly withering into becoming ancient, but I simply would not buy tickets for an 8 PM local time game on a weeknight.
3. For hardcore fans like us, just watch it all on Peacock. Problem solved. Except for the late start thing.
4. For the non-hardcore fans, this is potentially some great discoverability. ABC does not and has not aired NBA basketball on weeknights as a norm ever. Lots of people still have cable and as such still have access to the broadcast networks. Many people watch the news or late night or primetime shows on the networks. The broadcast networks are usually high on the channel list, like "Channel 3" or "Channel 10." Some fraction of those casual viewers might come across Knicks-Bucks, see a close score or something amazing happen and stick around. Distribution and discoverability are huge in a content business. Ask me how I know.
5. The dual 8 PM local starts are interesting in that they create a gap of roughly 30 minutes between the games, barring overtimes. Part of what NBC did (at least on Peacock) was show the weekly MJ clip. Cool use of space. I'd love to see some Inside the NBA or Scott Van Pelt style extended interviews with players, too.

Weird stuff. I guess we're all waking up to the Today Show instead of Charmed now.

Schedule

All times Eastern.

Rockets at Raptors, 6:30
Cavaliers at Celtics, 7, ESPN
Magic at Pistons, 7
Hawks at Nets, 7:30
Kings at Bulls, 8
Pacers at Mavericks, 8:30
Pelicans at Nuggets, 9
Blazers at Jazz, 9
Lakers at Timberwolves, 9:30, ESPN
Grizzlies at Suns, 10

Kind of a long newsletter. Back tomorrow. Be excellent to each other.