The three ways this can go for the Cavaliers

Good morning. It's mid-August, so let's talk about the 2025 NBA postseason's biggest disappointment: the Cleveland Cavaliers.

After registering their second best season of all-time, the Cleveland Cavaliers looked poised last April to hit new heights in the franchise's non-LeBron history. In 11 seasons with LeBron in Cavaliers wine and gold, Cleveland made the Eastern Conference Finals nine times, made the Finals in five of those seasons and won one championship. In the 43 seasons without LeBron prior to last year, Cleveland had made the Eastern Conference Finals twice. (The Cavaliers lost 4-2 to the eventual champion Celtics in '76 and 4-2 to the eventual champion Bulls in '92.)

At minimum, with a draw that avoided the reigning Celtics and the bully Knicks, the Cavaliers appeared poised to win two rounds and maybe get all the way to the Finals. And then the Indiana Pacers ruined all that, the Cavaliers crashed out in incredible fashion only to be overshadowed (and protected from scrutiny, in a way) by the Celtics' stunning flame-out.

There was certainly a dose of uncertainty floating around Cleveland in the immediate aftermath. But as the offseason arrived, it became clear the Cavaliers intended, by and large, to run it back. None of the team's four most important players – Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen – were in serious rumors through the offseason. Everyone assumed Ty Jerome would break containment, and he did, landing in Memphis as Ja Morant's back-up. To fill the gap the Cavs traded Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball, which both shifts some depth from the wings (where Mitchell, De'Andre Hunter, Max Strus and most of Cleveland's young prospects are) to the point as well as potentially saving the team some cap room next summer. Ball has a team option for 2026-27; Okoro is on the books for $11 million.

That's basically been it for the Cavaliers this summer. Kenny Atkinson will be back along with most of the core. Notably, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton will not be around for most or all of the season. Damian Lillard would not have been around even if the Bucks hadn't traded him.

So how is this going to go? I see three potential outcomes. Let's analyze them.