Ranking the 10 (current) NBA title contenders

At least a third of the league is in play to win the championship. Probably. Maybe. It's early!

Que se rompe la cuerda!; Francisco Goya; 1810-20

At least a third of the league is in play to win the championship. Probably. Maybe. It's early!

Good morning. It's Free Newsletter Wednesday. Let's basketball.

Over the last two weeks, I laid out how I perceive the tiers in each conference (first the West, then the East). In total, the exercise left me with 10 championship contenders of various stripes – six in the East, four in the West – along with a handful of teams I'm ready to launch to that level quickly if they prove out something or other early in the season. (Contenders can of course be demoted, as well.)

To put a finer point on the contenders' tier, here's how I'd rank them, 10 to 1, ahead of training camp.

Honorable mentions (the teams I'm ready to promote with a great first few weeks): Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Houston Rockets, Minnesota Timberwolves.

10. Los Angeles Lakers
This was my shakiest inclusion in the Minor Contenders tier across both conferences, and if Los Angeles were in the East there's no way I'd have landed them above Boston or Indiana. The case here is Luka Doncic, a second strong attacking ballhandler in Austin Reaves and some defensive pieces, led by Walker Kessler. We saw Luka and Jalen Brunson go to the Western Conference Finals and we saw Luka and Kyrie Irving go to the NBA Finals. Reaves isn't as good as either of those players in the grand scheme of their careers, but he's as good now, at least, as Brunson was in 2022. Kessler is the biggest factor here outside of injuries (and injuries remain a huge factor for Kessler), and we'll also need to watch how J.J. Redick works the rotations to protect Luka and Reaves on defense. They will need it.

9. Detroit Pistons
If Jalen Duren comes back on a qualifying offer, or if he is signed and traded for Domantas Sabonis, the Pistons are getting dropped from the contenders list immediately. (Sabonis is actually really good but dropping him into training camp fresh with Cade Cunningham will create a decently long window of adjustment.) Assuming Duren takes the Pistons' long-term deal at some point, the familiar rigors of the NBA season should get Detroit back to normal quickly, and the new normal features John Collins in an interesting role and Isaiah Joe adding to the list of potential snipers. They won 60 games last year! You don't win 60 games by fluke.

8. Denver Nuggets
As I wrote in the Western tiers piece, I am concerned about Denver's depth. But they do have Nikola Jokic and two perfect Nikola Jokic co-stars in Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. That counts for a lot. Jokic has played Victor Wembanyama quite well over three years, and the Nuggets took OKC to seven games in the Thunder's title year. Denver's Achilles heel has been the Timberwolves, but there's no guarantee the Nuggets run into them again and the Wolves have dramatically changed since last spring. Jaden McDaniels, Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards are still there, which is bad news for Denver. But maybe OKC or San Antonio will take them out?

7. Miami Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo can still win the MVP. He probably won't, especially since voters are likely to be almost universally annoyed by the previous 12 months or so. But the talent, production and impact are all there. My case, which is probably not widely held, is that an MVP-caliber Giannis, a star two-way big in Bam Adebayo, a genius coach in Erik Spoelstra and surprisingly solid depth with shooters (Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bobby Portis), defenders (Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins) and creators (Wiggins again, Pelle Larsson, Nikola Jovic) – that's a potentially great team.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell arrived in Cleveland four years ago, in time for Evan Mobley's second NBA season. Over that span, the Cavaliers are 215-113, a .655 winning clip and an average record of 54-28. Two teams have better regular season records over that span: the Celtics (.726, an average season of 60-22 [sheesh]) and the Thunder (.698, 57-25). The C's and Thunder have both won titles in that span, by the way. Why not Cleveland? (And if you answer "because James Harden," then ... I will quietly nod and back away. You have a point.) That said, the defense has been elite in this era until last season, in which case the offense was elite. It's very clear to me that this will remain a top defensive team, and while the depth has taken real hits over the past two summers, Mitchell and Mobley remain a daunting duo. It takes one hot postseason!

5. Toronto Raptors
As time plods forward toward opening night, I find myself getting more and more excited about the Raptors with Kawhi Leonard in Brandon Ingram's spot. Kawhi was simply incredible last season as the Clippers roared back into the playoff picture (until they didn't), and Scottie Barnes' growth as a two-way star is palpable. The depth is really strong around them. I totally get skepticism of Kawhi's ability to play enough regular season minutes to help Toronto to a favorable seed and surviving what could be a grueling postseason. The L.A. era does not inspire confidence on that front. But we have seen him do it before. Here, in Toronto, after a season in which he played 210 total minutes due to injury. He's older and has seen more injuries since then. But it is possible. In Canada, so much is possible.

4. Philadelphia 76ers
As I wrote last week when I included them among the two Major Contenders in the East: "There Are Questions but this is a major contender (on paper) (as of now)." This is the most tentative high ranking possible. Here's what I believe in:

Tyrese Maxey is a floor-raiser, a ceiling-raiser, a mood-raiser and a scoring genius.
Jaylen Brown can be the best player on a very good team. (We saw it literally last season!)
LeBron James still has that certain LeBronian on-ball genius in big moments. (As I mentioned in the Tiers piece, he was the best active player [by far] on a team that won a West playoff series last season.)
Joel Embiid's particular dominance can swing a series. Ask Boston.
Nick Nurse can adjust a team on the fly to great effect. (As a first-year coach in T-Dot, he incorporated a load managed Kawhi and midseason acquisition Marc Gasol en route to a title.)
The Sixers have depth and a capital-B Bold front office.

I also believe that all of that adds up to a title contender.

On paper. As of now.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder
This needs far less convincing, obviously. The Thunder took an empassioned, electric Spurs team to seven without much effective Jalen Williams or Ajay Mitchell. Yes, they will be without Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, and they really need some impact from younger, unproven players (again). But a top three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the current Consensus Best Player Alive), J-Dub and Chet Holmgren with players like Mitchell, Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein around them? And a great tactician coach? And a bold front office with tons of assets to spare? This is a helluva No. 3 contender.

2. San Antonio Spurs
I cannot wait to watch the Spurs strike back. Frankly, I'm furious to have to wait until Christmas Day to see them face the Knicks again! (Unless they meet in the NBA Cup Final two weeks earlier again.) Victor Wembanyama became an ecstatic religious experience by the end of the Western Conference Finals last season, and the character development from Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson and everyone else figures to remain high-level. De'Aaron Fox was banged up much of last season – he plays hurt all the time – and Tobias Harris will sub into the Harrison Barnes role alongside Julian Champagnie. The New York Times will need to re-rank their top 100 T.V. shows of the 21st century after this season, because the Wembanyama-era Spurs need to be top 10.

1. New York Knicks
The Knicks looked like a contender the summer they landed Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. They ran into a team of magic and mystery ( 2025 Indiana) the following postseason and fell short. And then last season happened. It all makes perfect sense. On paper, this team is loaded. The downgrade from Mitchell Robinson to Andre Drummond is real, but the afterglow of confidence coming off the conquering of Wembanyama, the Eastern Conference and History should provide a boost. It's really hard to imagine the Knicks ever losing again. I'm sure it will happen at some point, but I saw that playoff run with my own eyes and I find it hard to imagine them losing!

Kawhi's Last Laugh

As expected, the Raptors reached an extension deal with Kawhi following his trade back to Toronto. A small surprise: it's a 2-year extension with a player option on Year 2. Essentially, Toronto gave up those future picks for two guaranteed years of Leonard (this 2026-27 season and the locked-in 2027-28 season). Kawhi has said that he expects to retire a Raptor, and he's already 35 with a long injury history. Flexibility is generally good in these situations. But the flexibility is in Kawhi's sizable hands, not Toronto's. That's a risk given that they are out two future picks for the opportunity. One more wrinkle is that R.J. Barrett's contract expires in 2027. A new deal at the same salary would put the Raptors right at the tax level and not far under the first apron in 2027-28. Jakob Poeltl's deal is creating some problems there. (I suspect Barrett will get an extension, though maybe not until the season is underway.)

The championship window is two or three seasons. No pressure.

And More

We have a funny little consolidation trade: Buddy Hield and Ryan "The Other Nembhard" Nembhard to the Hornets for Dorian Finney-Smith, who was once quite good! Hield has had a fascinating career, and he is really, really good at one specific, important skill, is considered a good teammate and yet! No coach really seems to trust him and teams are constantly trading him. He is arguably one of the five best three-point shooters in NBA history. It might not even be arguable. You wonder if Charles Lee will play him. Anyways, this is Charlotte getting off of Finney-Smith's money (after getting net two seconds to take him off Houston's books, tidy business!) and Atlanta getting Yet Another Wing to bolster their depth. My kneejerk reaction is that this is good business for Charlotte and questionable business for Atlanta.

Nicolas Batum announced his retirement in a very sweet Instagram video with his son. A lovely player who won't land on many all-time lists (except best French players ever) or get his jersey retired anywhere, but who definitely improved every team he joined. I loved him most on those thrilling late-Aughts, early-2010s Blazers teams. And of course leading the French national team through the Parker era and into the modern Wembanyama era. Légende.

Joe Vardon of The Athletic has some details on the NBA's investigation into the Gary Trent Jr. deal. A different law firm got the case! I'm really curious if there's any evidence the investigators can find tying Trent's previous below-market deals to the new way-above-market deal.

Here's a fun cultural artifact for these times: John Gibson, the interim governor of the Clippers during Steve Ballmer's exile, posts a video message with a background of a choppy-ass sea and a Clippers logo that his body covers almost completely.

The Rockets had media day before they depart for Asia. Steven Adams is always real, and he's really real for providing fair warning.

(Don't worry about your newsletter, friends: I'm not a GTA guy. I played San Andreas enough to worry myself after I finished college and never got GTA 4 or 5. I will be avoiding GTA 6 like the plague. What you really need to worry about for the newsletter is once they announce a release date for LEGO Skylines. I swear, if they drop that during the playoffs ...)

One other note from Rockets media day: look at Reed Sheppard.