The preseason NBA hot seat rankings
A sad fact of life in the NBA is that turnover among head coaches is often heavy, including during the season. Here are the coaches most likely to suffer that fate this year. Good morning. Let's basketball.
A sad fact of life in the NBA is that turnover among head coaches is often heavy, including during the season. Here are the coaches most likely to suffer that fate this year. Good morning. Let's basketball.
No one likes talking about people getting fired from their jobs. But as it goes, getting fired from a job as an NBA head coach isn't all bad. You get paid the remainder of your contract, for one. If you're fired midseason, you get to step away from a bad situation in most cases and not have to see the mess through. Most importantly, the only way you can get hired as an NBA head coach again is by losing your current job. It's a stepladder to new opportunity!
Given the likelihood that multiple NBA teams will fire their head coaches this season, let's sort out who that might be. But first, let's eliminate some names from the proceedings via certain categories.
ELIMINATED VIA NEAR-UNIVERSAL RESPECT
Erik Spoelstra, Heat
Rick Carlisle, Pacers
Mark Daigneault, Thunder
Steve Kerr, Warriors
There's no way Spoelstra, Carlisle or Daigneault gets fired during a season, even if the Heat are in a really weird spot. Miami will trade Bam Adebayo before they fire Spoelstra. Carlisle is safe for a while, Daigneault might be knockin' on Spo's door for the "Best Young Coach" honor (Spo's not that young any more). Kerr's a different beast: he has plenty of critics out there, including in the Bay, and he's made some internal enemies over the years. He's also expensive. Yet I remain thoroughly convinced that the Warriors will keep him in place until either a) he walks away or b) Steph Curry retires. It's impossible to imagine the team firing him midseason at any point.
ELIMINATED VIA JUST GETTING THE JOB
Mike Brown, Knicks
David Adelman, Nuggets
Jordan Ott, Suns
Mitch Johnson, Spurs
There have been rare coaches – Adrian Griffin, most recently – who were hired and fired in the same year. But it's rare and unlikely to happen for these fellas. We do have some quasi-"just got the job" candidates in the actual rankings.
Please note: we are closely watching Ott and Johnson for next summer. Ott's boss has yet to keep a single head coach for more than one year. The Spurs, meanwhile, have enormous expectations and it wasn't entirely clear last season that Johnson was ready for this, albeit amid incredibly difficult circumstances.
ELIMINATED VIA A RECENT CONTRACT EXTENSION
Jason Kidd, Mavericks
Will Hardy, Jazz
Billy Donovan, Bulls
Joe Mazzulla, Celtics
J.J. Redick, Lakers
These dudes all just signed long-term contract extensions and didn't see front office turnover after those deals were inked, so it's unlikely they'd be fired midseason barring an outright disaster or some "off-the-court" problems. Most NBA owners do not, in fact, like burning money. Do keep in mind that this is not always a failsafe: the Kings extended Mike Brown last July and fired him in December. But it's pretty rare that owners are willing to light money directly on fire. We do have one exception who made the rankings.
HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR REASONS
Most of these are second-year coaches who had some semblance of success in Year 1.
Kenny Atkinson, Cavaliers: Cleveland is highly likely to be awesome in the regular season, and Atkinson has done his job quite well.
Ime Udoka, Rockets: Houston's expectations might have been tempered a bit by the Fred VanVleet injury, but they are still high and reasonable enough that Udoka likely has a few more years of trust remaining.
J.B. Bickerstaff, Pistons: In Year 2 for Bickerstaff in Detroit, Year 1's explosion of wins and strong outing against the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs has likely built up enough equity to survive anything but a full-on disaster during this season.
Jordi Fernandez, Nets: No coach of a terrible team got better reviews than Fernandez, who legitimately seems primed for an excellent run as an NBA head coach at some point.
Charles Lee, Hornets: Hardest job in the league with one exception (No. 1 on our hot seat rankings, stay tuned). It's not clear that patience in Charlotte will extend beyond Lee's second year, but odds are high that he gets the chance to build something for the whole campaign.
Brian Keefe, Wizards: Yet another second-year coach with low expectations in the standings and in all likelihood the freedom to finish out the season if not go another year.
Ty Lue, Clippers: Not a second-year coach, but nearing that Spo level of universal respect in his role and playing for a franchise that does seem to value continuity. Things would have to go fully off the rails – or Lue would need to be implicated in the fake tree scandal – for this to end before next summer.
THE OFFICIAL 2025-26 PRESEASON HOT SEAT RANKINGS
10. Tuomas Iisalo, Grizzlies
Iisalo technically just got the job, but it's notable that the Grizzlies first hired him a year ago as Taylor Jenkins' lead assistant on a three-year deal one imagines was pretty lucrative to pull him in from the high-level European coaching ranks. No terms were leaked about his new contract: given the uncertainty around the roster and its upside, what are the odds the Grizzlies just boosted Iisalo's salary for these last two years on his contract so they can mutually decide what to do when it ends? If that's the case and Memphis didn't add years, then there's relatively little holding the Grizzlies front office back if this doesn't go well. And we're off to a bad start with Desmond Bane gone, the frontcourt in various states of disrepair and Ja Morant already dealing with pain.
Ryan Saunders, an assistant coach with the Grizzlies, has NBA head coaching experience.
9. Chris Finch, Timberwolves
Finch almost landed in the HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR REASONS category, similar to Lue. But the Wolves didn't extend him this offseason after back-to-back bids in the Western Conference Finals. That's notable. He did sign a 4-year extension in 2024, so it's not like he's close to the end of his deal or anything. But he's had more success than any Timberwolves coach ever – more than Flip Saunders, more than Rick Adelman – and Anthony Edwards seems to respect him a great deal. The odds are very low that Finch gets replaced during the season unless things go entirely off the rails. Bu it's Minnesota. They could definitely go off the rails.
The Wolves don't have any assistant coaches with NBA head coaching experience. But they do have Elston Turner, maybe the best assistant coach of this century that has yet to get a head coaching shot, and Micah Nori, who is probably the current assistant most likely in the league to get hired as a head coach next summer. (I'm still mad the Kings never hired Elston Turner as head coach – he was a lead assistant in two different eras!)
8. Jamahl Mosley, Magic
Expectations are finally sky-high for Mosley's Magic. He has two years left on his deal after this one, and the reviews have generally been strong. But this is still a pretty difficult roster and Mosley's staff has been utterly unable to build a passable offense with it. They'll need a top-12 offense to get where they want to be overall. Can Mosley do it? If it becomes clear he cannot, will the front office pivot?
The Magic do not have any assistant coaches with NBA head coaching experience. That could be a factor here.
7. Chauncey Billups, Blazers
Billups just signed an extension at the end of last season but has had minimal success in Portland as a head coach and has a new boss as the Allen family trust sold the franchise to Tom Dundon. It's pretty unlikely that Billups would be fired midseason after signing that big extension, but the Blazers are going to be pretty bad, right? And they've been pretty bad since he got there? Portland made the playoffs eight straight seasons under Terry Stotts and have missed the postseason four straight seasons under Billups. It's just math!
The only coach on Billups' staff with NBA head coaching experience is Nate Bjorkgren and ... uh, yeah. That experience is not a plus for Nate. However, the team did hire Tiago Splitter this offseason, and he led Paris Basketball to the French league title last season ... which is exactly what Iisalo did before becoming an NBA assistant head coach and then quickly an NBA head coach. Quinton Crawford is another future NBA head coach on Billups' staff. Good staff.
6. Darko Rajakovic, Raptors
Rajakovic is contributing to suddenly high expectations for Toronto. They were 30-52 last season. There are a lot factors that went into the team being 30-52 ... but they were 30-52. If it's disappointing that the Raptors aren't in the playoff mix around midseason, I'd be deeply nervous were I Rajakovic. The team did pick up Darko's team option year for 2026-27, so he's not a lame duck. But this is the team that let Masai Ujiri, the architect of the Raptors title team, walk last summer. All bets are off if Toronto doesn't look like one of this season's big leapers.
The Raptors don't have any former NBA head coaches lurking on Rajakovic's staff, but assistant Jama Mahlalela is seen as a future NBA head coach, has deep ties with the Raptors and is Canadian.
5. Quin Snyder, Hawks
Snyder is well-paid and has two years left on his deal. It feels worth noting that the Hawks were no better with Snyder in the 2023-24 season when he arrived as the savior (10-11) than they'd been under Nate McMillan that season (29-30). And it's worth noting that the Hawks missed the playoffs under Snyder in each of the last two seasons. As with Rajakovic, there are factors at play. Snyder didn't trade for Dejounte Murray or get Jalen Johnson injured. But this is a results-oriented business, and Atlanta under Snyder just hasn't had good results. I'd be concerned, especially since the Hawks have new management.
The only Hawks assistant with NBA head coaching experience is Igor Kokosov (five Suns coaches ago!), though Mike Brey – who spent 23 years as the head coach at Notre Dame before joining Snyder in Atlanta – is around. Brey and Snyder are close via Duke heritage, though, and it's unclear that Brey would agree to replace him.
4. Doc Rivers, Bucks
The Bucks are a surprisingly fickle bunch in terms of coaching, and Doc was born on a hot seat despite having relatively long stays in most of his jobs. He's clearly the most divisive coach of his era, beating out Kidd. (Mike Brown is high on the list, too.) Milwaukee is desperate as hell right now, and desperate teams act irrationally. And honestly, I'm not even sure it'd be irrational to replace Doc at any point. He's a strange bird as an NBA head coach: super candid with the media, openly critical of his own players and bosses at times, clearly smart on and off the court but prone to odd decisions. Who knows what could happen in Milwaukee this season?! Doc getting canned midstream would be among the less surprising decisions we could see.
Doc has two former NBA head coaches, Dave Joerger and Darvin Ham, on staff. It's kind of a shocker that Joerger hasn't been hired as a head coach since he last ran the Kings to moderate success.
3. Willie Green, Pelicans
I am on record writing that the Pelicans could be pretty good. However! If not, it's hard to imagine Green surviving the season. He's had four years in New Orleans and a lot of tumult around him, from David Griffin saying things most GMs wouldn't say to Zion Williamson doing things most star players wouldn't do to some wild trades. And now he has a new boss in Joe Dumars. If history is a guide, New Orleans probably has to be at .500 in December for Green to avoid getting bounced here. The thing is: I think Green's a good coach who will get another job in a better resourced situation pretty quickly.
James Borrego is Green's associate head coach. He's been a head coach twice in the NBA and is broadly seen as someone who will get another head coaching shot.
2. Doug Christie, Kings
Alright, here's the deal. Christie took over for Mike Brown last December, had the Kings above .500 for his 51 games in charge and then was named the full-time head coach a week after the team introduced a new general manager, Scott Perry. By all indications, Christie is set up to get the whole season. Vivek Ranadive is not among the richest NBA owners, despite what his willingness to blow money on coaches indicates. This is set up for Christie to have a run here.
Except a) it's the Kings, b) it's Ranadive, and c) it's Doug Christie. I see the record with Christie. I hear his inspirational post-game speeches. But I also see the product on the floor, and the roster status, and I don't buy it at all. He is not a better coach than Mike Brown. I'm sorry. Look, it's telling that the first thing that happened when the Kings replaced Mike Brown with Doug Christie is that De'Aaron Fox – who like Christie had been around the team a long time – asked for a trade. That happened. It's telling that Domantas Sabonis is reportedly questioning whether he wants to sign an extension. Not the other way around, that the Kings are questioning their future with Sabonis as the central star. That Sabonis, who has reached new career heights in Sacramento, is questioning whether he wants to stay.
Nothing but the record improved under Christie. There's no identity, the identity the team briefly had with Sabonis and Fox was blown up with the addition of the additive but also particular DeMar DeRozan. Zach LaVine is actually a good NBA player and helped a lot when he arrived last season. But the roster's weird, Christie's an odd coach who makes odd decisions, and the vibes are horrible. If Kings history is any indication, that's a recipe for a solve-it-all midseason coaching change. Prove me wrong.
Former Hawks and Knicks head coach Mike Woodson and one-time Knicks interim head coach Mike Miller have joined the Kings staff. Both worked under Perry in New York, though Woodson's time as head coach there preceded Perry's general managership.
1. Nick Nurse, Sixers
This is the Bucks turned up to 11. This team has acted irrationally and will act irrationally. Everyone appears to just be waiting for the meteor to hit. And this is after last season, which featured a series of meteors hitting. Daryl Morey might need a fall guy, and Nick Nurse is peculiar and brash enough to be an excellent fall guy. Do you remember how stunning the dual firings of Calvin Booth and Michael Malone were in the last week of the regular season last year? Philly might outdo that. I'm not sure how, but no one does drama like Philadelphia. Also, the Sixers could just like ... be amazing. Who can tell?
There are no assistants with NBA head coaching experience on staff. Rico Hines is the most well-known guy on Nurse's staff. If Morey doesn't want desperately to escape if this goes (even more) sideways, he'd probably try to hire a new outside full-time head coach if he shivs Nurse.
What Else We Published Lately
For our dear free subscribers, here's some of what you missed since last Wednesday.
- A meditation on what storylines and achievements could await the Thunder, who appear to have it all
- A take on the NBA's vetting double standards, where a crooked tree-planting company gets barely a glance for his nine-figure sponsorship and yet the poor Pelicans have to wait through eight months of smoothie testing to get some much-needed revenue (I remain very passionate about the Smoothie King vetting process)
- An analysis of the annual GM survey, which indicates that the GMs also have no idea who is going to win any given year
The regular season begins next week. If you want an issue of GMIB every weekday, sign on up. We rarely disappoint!
Schedule
Three more nights of preseason basketball. All times Eastern.
Grizzlies vs. Hornets in Greensboro, 7
Raptors at Celtics, 7:30, NBA TV
Clippers at Kings, 10
Mavericks vs. Lakers in Las Vegas, 10:30, ESPN
Be excellent to each other.
